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Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Simulations using machine learning (ML) models and mechanistic models are often run to inform decision-making processes. Uncertainty estimates of simulation results are critical to the decision-making process because simulation results of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Babajide Kolade

This paper provides a comparative study of modern uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. To greatly enhance real-time performance, both differential algebra (DA) and a directional differential algebra (DDA) approach are employed. This can…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-26 Ethan R. Burnett , Spencer Boone

When we use simulation to assess the performance of stochastic systems, the input models used to drive simulation experiments are often estimated from finite real-world data. There exist both input model and simulation estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-10 Wei Xie , Cheng Li , Yuefeng Wu , Pu Zhang

In recent years, large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly prevalent, offering remarkable text generation capabilities. However, a pressing challenge is their tendency to make confidently wrong predictions, highlighting the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Xiang Gao , Jiaxin Zhang , Lalla Mouatadid , Kamalika Das

This study investigates uncertainty quantification (UQ) using quantum-classical hybrid machine learning (ML) models for applications in complex and dynamic fields, such as attaining resiliency in supply chain digital twins and financial…

Atomistic simulations often rely on interatomic potentials to access greater time- and length- scales than those accessible to first principles methods such as density functional theory (DFT). However, since a parameterised potential…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-10-08 I. R. Best , T. J. Sullivan , J. R. Kermode

In this paper, we study the stochastic collocation (SC) methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in hyperbolic systems of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs). In these methods, the underlying PDEs are numerically solved at a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-06-19 Alina Chertock , Arsen S. Iskhakov , Safa Janajra , Alexander Kurganov

This paper introduces a novel and scalable framework for uncertainty estimation and separation with applications in data driven modeling in science and engineering tasks where reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. Leveraging an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-19 Navid Ansari , Hans-Peter Seidel , Vahid Babaei

First principles approaches have revolutionized our ability in using computers to predict, explore and design materials. A major advantage commonly associated with these approaches is that they are fully parameter free. However, numerically…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-12-25 Jan Janssen , Edgar Makarov , Tilmann Hickel , Alexander V. Shapeev , Jörg Neugebauer

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-25 Xu Wu , Lesego E. Moloko , Pavel M. Bokov , Gregory K. Delipei , Joshua Kaizer , Kostadin N. Ivanov

We have recently proposed a rigorous framework for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in which UQ objectives and assumption/information set are brought into the forefront, providing a framework for the communication and comparison of UQ…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2012-02-07 M. McKerns , H. Owhadi , C. Scovel , T. J. Sullivan , M. Ortiz

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Jiaxin Zhang , Prafulla Kumar Choubey , Kung-Hsiang Huang , Caiming Xiong , Chien-Sheng Wu

An uncertainty quantification framework is developed for Eulerian-Lagrangian models of particle-laden flows, where the fluid is modeled through a system of partial differential equations in the Eulerian frame and inertial particles are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-11-01 Vasileios Fountoulakis , H. S. Udaykumar , Gustaaf B. Jacobs

Complex multi-step reasoning tasks, such as solving mathematical problems, remain challenging for large language models (LLMs). While outcome supervision is commonly used, process supervision via process reward models (PRMs) provides…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Zihuiwen Ye , Luckeciano Carvalho Melo , Younesse Kaddar , Phil Blunsom , Sam Staton , Yarin Gal

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone

In the study of gas dynamics, theoretical modeling and numerical simulation are mostly set up with deterministic settings. Given the coarse-grained modeling in theories of fluids, considerable uncertainties may exist between flow-field…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-08-07 Tianbai Xiao

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are gaining popularity as a method for solving differential equations. While being more feasible in some contexts than the classical numerical techniques, PINNs still lack credibility. A remedy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Olga Graf , Pablo Flores , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Longze Li , Jiang Chang , Aleksandar Vakanski , Yachun Wang , Tiankai Yao , Min Xian

This article deals with the problem of the uncertainty in rule-based systems (RBS), but from the perspective of quantum computing (QC). In this work we first remember the characteristics of Quantum Rule-Based Systems (QRBS), a concept…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-14 Vicente Moret-Bonillo , Isaac Fernández-Varela , Diego Alvarez-Estevez