English

Agentic Uncertainty Quantification

Artificial Intelligence 2026-01-23 v1 Computation and Language

Abstract

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2601.15703,
  title  = {Agentic Uncertainty Quantification},
  author = {Jiaxin Zhang and Prafulla Kumar Choubey and Kung-Hsiang Huang and Caiming Xiong and Chien-Sheng Wu},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2601.15703},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

36 pages, 9 figures, 9 tables

R2 v1 2026-07-01T09:15:20.700Z