English

CoT-UQ: Improving Response-wise Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs with Chain-of-Thought

Computation and Language 2025-06-04 v2 Machine Learning Machine Learning

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks but struggle to accurately quantify uncertainty in their generated responses. This limitation makes it challenging to detect misinformation and ensure reliable decision-making. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for LLMs are primarily prompt-wise rather than response-wise, often requiring multiple response samples, which incurs high computational costs. Moreover, LLMs have been shown to be overconfident, particularly when using reasoning steps to derive their answers. In this work, we propose CoT-UQ, a response-wise UQ framework that integrates LLMs' inherent reasoning capabilities through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) into the UQ process. CoT-UQ captures critical information during inference by extracting keywords from each reasoning step and assessing their importance to the final answer. This key reasoning information is then aggregated to produce a final uncertainty estimate. We conduct extensive experiments based on Llama Family with model sizes varying from 8B to 13B across logical and mathematical reasoning tasks. Experimental results demonstrate that CoT-UQ significantly outperforms existing UQ methods, achieving an average improvement of 5.9% AUROC compared to current UQ methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/ZBox1005/CoT-UQ.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2502.17214,
  title  = {CoT-UQ: Improving Response-wise Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs with Chain-of-Thought},
  author = {Boxuan Zhang and Ruqi Zhang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.17214},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Accepted by ACL 2025 Findings

R2 v1 2026-06-28T21:55:36.528Z