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We develop some sufficient conditions for the stochastic ordering between hitting times, in a fixed state, for two Markov chains. In particular, we focus attention on the so called \emph{skip-free} case. In the analysis of such a case, we…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-25 Emilio De Santis , Fabio Spizzichino

In the setting where we have $n$ independent observations of a random variable $X$, we derive explicit error bounds in total variation distance when approximating the number of observations equal to the maximum of the sample (in the case…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Fraser Daly

We study the mixing time of the single-site update Markov chain, known as the Glauber dynamics, for generating a random independent set of a tree. Our focus is obtaining optimal convergence results for arbitrary trees. We consider the more…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Charilaos Efthymiou , Thomas P. Hayes , Daniel Stefankovic , Eric Vigoda

We study a Markovian agent-based model (MABM) in this paper. Each agent is endowed with a local state that changes over time as the agent interacts with its neighbours. The neighbourhood structure is given by a graph. In a recent paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-04-04 Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh , Arnab Auddy , Yann Disser , Heinz Koeppl

In this article we consider the graph alignment problem from the perspective of high-dimensional statistics: we aim to estimate an unknown permutation $\pi^*$ from the observation of two correlated random adjacency matrices $A_1$, $A_2$. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Laurent Massoulié

We study Poisson's equation in the context of general state space Markov chains. For chains satisfying a contraction assumption w.r.t. a Wasserstein distance, we show that a solution exists for Lipschitz functions and investigate its…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-24 Julian Hofstadler

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-08 Jim Griffin , Krys Latuszynski , Mark Steel

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

We investigate the complexity of covariance matrix estimation for Gibbs distributions based on dependent samples from a Markov chain. We show that when $\pi$ satisfies a Poincar\'e inequality and the chain possesses a spectral gap, we can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Yunbum Kook , Matthew S. Zhang

There is a long history of establishing central limit theorems for Markov chains. Quantitative bounds for chains with a spectral gap were proved by Mann and refined later. Recently, rates of convergence for the total variation distance were…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-24 Rafael Chiclana , Yuval Peres

We formulate some simple conditions under which a Markov chain may be approximated by the solution to a differential equation, with quantifiable error probabilities. The role of a choice of coordinate functions for the Markov chain is…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-04-23 R. W. R. Darling , J. R. Norris

We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-06 Jordan Franks , Matti Vihola

We establish sharp large-deviation asymptotic estimates for the maximum order statistic of i.i.d.\ standard normal random variables on all Borel subsets of the positive real line. This result yields more accurate tail approximations than…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-23 José M. Zapata

We introduce a linear-scaling stochastic method to compute real-space maps of any positive local spectral operator in a tight-binding model. By employing positive-definite estimators, the sampling error at each site can be rigorously…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-18 H. P. Veiga , D. R. Pinheiro , J. P. Santos Pires , J. M. Viana Parente Lopes

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-16 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly

Markov chains are convenient means of generating realizations of networks with a given (joint or otherwise) degree distribution, since they simply require a procedure for rewiring edges. The major challenge is to find the right number of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2012-11-01 J. Ray , A. Pinar , C. Seshadhri

Consider a sequence (indexed by n) of Markov chains Z^n in R^d characterized by transition kernels that approximately (in n) depend only on the rescaled state n^{-1} Z^n. Subject to a smoothness condition, such a family can be closely…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-08-17 Kamil Szczegot

Computational couplings of Markov chains provide a practical route to unbiased Monte Carlo estimation that can utilize parallel computation. However, these approaches depend crucially on chains meeting after a small number of transitions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Brian L. Trippe , Tin D. Nguyen , Tamara Broderick

Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be independent random points drawn from an absolutely continuous probability measure with density $f$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$. Under mild conditions on $f$, we derive a Poisson limit theorem for the number of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 László Györfi , Norbert Henze , Harro Walk

There are two ways of speeding up MCMC algorithms: (1) construct more complex samplers that use gradient and higher order information about the target and (2) design a control variate to reduce the asymptotic variance. While the efficiency…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-19 Aleksandar Mijatović , Jure Vogrinc