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The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-30 Lorenzo Taggi , Francesca Colaiori , Vittorio Loreto , Francesca Tria

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Applications · Statistics 2009-08-17 Tom Britton , Theodore Kypraios , Philip O'Neill

A new detailed mathematical model for dynamics of immune response to hepatitis B is proposed, which takes into account contributions from innate and adaptive immune responses, as well as cytokines. Stability analysis of different steady…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-16 F. Fatehi Chenar , Y. N. Kyrychko , K. B. Blyuss

It has long been known that antibiotic treatment will not completely kill off a bacteria population. For many species a small fraction of bacteria is not sensitive to antibiotics. These bacteria are said to persist. Recently it has been…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-29 Olivier Garet , Regine Marchand , Rinaldo B. Schinazi

In this paper we study a nonlinear reaction-diffusion system which models an infectious disease caused by bacteria such as those for cholera. One of the significant features in this model is that a certain portion of the recovered human…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2022-02-01 Hong-Ming Yin , Jun Zou

The sustainable use of multicomponent treatments such as combination therapies, combination vaccines/chemicals, and plants carrying multigenic resistance requires an understanding of how their population-wide deployment affects the speed of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-16 Romain Bourget , Loïc Chaumont , Natalia Sapoukhina

Spatial patterning can be crucially important for understanding the behavior of interacting populations. Here we investigate a simple model of parasite and host populations in which parasites are random walkers that must come into contact…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-09-07 J. J. Dong , B. Skinner , N. Breecher , B. Schmittmann , R. K. P. Zia

The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-04 Matthew Adeoye , Xavier Didelot , Simon EF Spencer

Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-07-21 Darren Flynn-Primrose , Steven C. Walker , Michael Li , Benjamin M. Bolker , David J. D. Earn , Jonathan Dushoff

We study the limit of many small mutations of a model of population dynamics. The population is structured by phonological traits and is spatially inhomogeneous. The various sub-populations compete for the same nutrient which diffuses…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2016-01-19 Pierre-Emmanuel Jabin , Raymond Strother Schram

We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-21 Juan G. Calvo , Mario I. Simoy , Juan P. Aparicio , José E. Chacón , Fabio Sanchez

In biology phenotypic switching is a common bet-hedging strategy in the face of uncertain environmental conditions. Existing mathematical models often focus on periodically changing environments to determine the optimal phenotypic response.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-03-14 Peter G. Hufton , Yen Ting Lin , Tobias Galla

We investigate a cyclic game system where organisms face an epidemic beyond being threatened by natural enemies. As a survival strategy, individuals of one out of the species usually safeguard themselves by approaching the enemies of their…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-01-09 J. Menezes , B. Ferreira , E. Rangel , B. Moura

We numerically study a dynamical system model of an idiotypic immune network with a small number of degrees of freedom. The model was originally introduced by Varela et.al., and describes antibodies interacting in a body in order to prepare…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-10-31 Satoko Itaya , Tatsuya Uezu

Mechanisms of immunity, and of the host-pathogen interactions in general are among the most fundamental problems of medicine, ecology, and evolution studies. Here, we present a microscopic, protein-level, sequence-based model of immune…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2007-11-22 Muyoung Heo , Konstantin B. Zeldovich , Eugene I. Shakhnovich

Oncolytic virotherapy, utilizing genetically modified viruses to combat cancer and trigger anti-cancer immune responses, has garnered significant attention in recent years. In our previous work arXiv:2305.12386, we developed a stochastic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-23 David Morselli , Marcello E. Delitala , Adrianne L. Jenner , Federico Frascoli

In the infectious disease literature, significant effort has been devoted to studying dynamics at a single scale. For example, compartmental models describing population-level dynamics are often formulated using differential equations. In…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-16 Yuan Yin , Jennifer A. Flegg , Mark B. Flegg

When the body gets infected by a pathogen or receives a vaccine dose, the immune system develops pathogen-specific immunity. Induced immunity decays in time and years after recovery/vaccination the host might become susceptible again.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-01-15 Maria Vittoria Barbarossa , Gergely Röst

Cooperation and competition between pathogens can alter the amount of individuals affected by a co-infection. Nonetheless, the evolution of the pathogens' behavior has been overlooked. Here, we consider a co-evolutionary model where the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-23 Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad , Kai Seegers , Alessio Cardillo , Philipp Hövel

Mutations sometimes increase contagiousness for evolving pathogens. During an epidemic, scientists use viral genome data to infer a shared evolutionary history and connect this history to geographic spread. We propose a model that directly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-14 Andrew J. Holbrook , Xiang Ji , Marc A. Suchard