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We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-07-07 Georgios Margazoglou , Tobias Grafke , Alessandro Laio , Valerio Lucarini

Policy gradient methods are appealing in deep reinforcement learning but suffer from high variance of gradient estimate. To reduce the variance, the state value function is applied commonly. However, the effect of the state value function…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-06 Jiaming Guo , Rui Zhang , Xishan Zhang , Shaohui Peng , Qi Yi , Zidong Du , Xing Hu , Qi Guo , Yunji Chen

The reliability and precision of dynamic database are vital for the optimal operating and global control of integrated energy systems. One of the effective ways to obtain the accurate states is state estimations. A novel robust dynamic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-24 Liang Chen , Yang Li , Manyun Huang , Xinxin Hui , Songlin Gu

We study efficiency of intensity-based dynamic speckle method for characterization of dynamic events which occur at variable rate in time within the temporal averaging interval. We checked ability of the method to describe the speed…

A computationally efficient method for online joint state inference and dynamical model learning is presented. The dynamical model combines an a priori known, physically derived, state-space model with a radial basis function expansion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-12 Anton Kullberg , Isaac Skog , Gustaf Hendeby

Data assimilation refers to the process of obtaining an estimate of a system's state using a model for the system's time evolution and a time series of measurements that are possibly noisy and incomplete. However, for practical reasons, the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 Matthew Cornick , Brian Hunt , Edward Ott , Michael F. Schatz

In this note, we study distributed time-varying optimization for a multi-agent system. We first focus on a class of time-varying quadratic cost functions, and develop a new distributed algorithm that integrates an average estimator and an…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-06 Liangze Jiang , Zheng-Guang Wu , Lei Wang

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-25 Anirban Mondal , Abhijit Mandal

Data-driven modeling is useful for reconstructing nonlinear dynamical systems when the underlying process is unknown or too expensive to compute. Having reliable uncertainty assessment of the forecast enables tools to be deployed to predict…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-01 Mengyang Gu , Yizi Lin , Victor Chang Lee , Diana Qiu

Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 M. Chung , M. Binois , R. B. Gramacy , D. J. Moquin , A. P. Smith , A. M. Smith

The hybrid power system state estimation problem requires computing the state of the power network using data from both legacy and phasor measurements. Recent research has shown that the normal equations approach in complex variables is…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Izudin Dzafic , Rabih A. Jabr , Bikash C. Pal

Gradient matching is a promising tool for learning parameters and state dynamics of ordinary differential equations. It is a grid free inference approach, which, for fully observable systems is at times competitive with numerical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-11 Nico S. Gorbach , Stefan Bauer , Joachim M. Buhmann

Neural dynamical systems are dynamical systems that are described at least in part by neural networks. The class of continuous-time neural dynamical systems must, however, be numerically integrated for simulation and learning. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-26 Margaret Trautner , Sai Ravela

Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. We consider a two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-03 Matteo Barigozzi , Marc Hallin

Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-08 Till Massing

This paper addresses the problem of resilient state estimation and attack reconstruction for bounded-error nonlinear discrete-time systems with nonlinear observations/ constraints, where both sensors and actuators can be compromised by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-26 Mohammad Khajenejad , Zeyuan Jin , Thach Ngoc Dinh , Sze Zheng Yong

The analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems generally requires the integration of simulation data with experimental measurements. Experimental data often has substantial amounts of measurement noise that compromises the ability to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-02 Samuel Rudy , Steven Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

In this paper, a hybrid measurement- and model-based method is proposed which can estimate the dynamic state Jacobian matrix and the dynamic system state matrix in near real-time utilizing statistical properties extracted from PMU…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-06-07 Xiaozhe Wang , Janusz Bialek , Konstantin Turitsyn

The paper investigates the problem of estimating the state of a time-varying system with a linear measurement model; in particular, the paper considers the case where the number of measurements available can be smaller than the number of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-07 Guido Cavraro , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Joshua Comden , Andrey Bernstein