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The ideas of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty are widely used to reason about the probabilistic predictions of machine-learning models. We identify incoherence in existing discussions of these ideas and suggest this stems from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Freddie Bickford Smith , Jannik Kossen , Eleanor Trollope , Mark van der Wilk , Adam Foster , Tom Rainforth

By examining two counterexamples to the existing theory, it is shown, with mathematical rigor, that as far as scattered particles are concerned the true distribution function is in principle not determinable (indeterminacy principle or…

General Physics · Physics 2008-12-24 C. Y. Chen

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2007-05-23 G. D'Agostini , M. Raso

Uncertainty principles for concentration of signals into truncated subspaces are considered. The ``classic'' uncertainty principle is explored as a special case of a more general operator framework. The time-bandwidth concentration problem…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Ram Somaraju , Leif W. Hanlen

Predictive uncertainty estimation remains a challenging problem precluding the use of deep neural networks as subsystems within safety-critical applications. Aleatoric uncertainty is a component of predictive uncertainty that cannot be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Angel Daruna , Yunye Gong , Abhinav Rajvanshi , Han-Pang Chiu , Yi Yao

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Philipp Hennig , Michael A Osborne , Mark Girolami

We propose a criterion of equidistribution by the differentiability of certain arithmetic invariants. Combined with the slope method and the asymptotic measures, this criterion gives a new "conceptual" proof to equidistribution results…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2008-12-19 Huayi Chen

A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer

Aleatoric uncertainty quantification seeks for distributional knowledge of random responses, which is important for reliability analysis and robustness improvement in machine learning applications. Previous research on aleatoric uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-10 Ziyi Huang , Henry Lam , Haofeng Zhang

In many areas of engineering and sciences, decision rules and control strategies are usually designed based on nominal values of relevant system parameters. To ensure that a control strategy or decision rule will work properly when the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Xinjia Chen

These lecture notes are devoted to selected topics related to the uncertainty principle in harmonic analysis. Rather than attempting a systematic treatment, we emphasize only a number of both classical and deep manifestations of this…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2026-04-29 Adem Limani

Traditional approaches to ensure group fairness in algorithmic decision making aim to equalize ``total'' error rates for different subgroups in the population. In contrast, we argue that the fairness approaches should instead focus only on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Junaid Ali , Preethi Lahoti , Krishna P. Gummadi

This paper studies the problem of distributed classification with a network of heterogeneous agents. The agents seek to jointly identify the underlying target class that best describes a sequence of observations. The problem is first…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-24 James Z. Hare , Cesar A. Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

The Principle of Maximum Entropy is a rigorous technique for estimating an unknown distribution given partial information while simultaneously minimizing bias. However, an important requirement for applying the principle is that the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Kenneth Bogert , Matthew Kothe

In a statistical analysis in Particle Physics, nuisance parameters can be introduced to take into account various types of systematic uncertainties. The best estimate of such a parameter is often modeled as a Gaussian distributed variable…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-02-25 Glen Cowan

Outlier hypothesis testing is studied in a universal setting. Multiple sequences of observations are collected, a small subset of which are outliers. A sequence is considered an outlier if the observations in that sequence are distributed…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-04-02 Yun Li , Sirin Nitinawarat , Venugopal V. Veeravalli

Originally, quantum probability theory was developed to analyze statistical phenomena in quantum systems, where classical probability theory does not apply, because the lattice of measurable sets is not necessarily distributive. On the…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2009-04-18 Dusko Pavlovic

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

A discussion is presented of the manner in which uncertainties in parton distributions and related quantities are determined. One of the central problems is the criteria used to judge what variation of the parameters describing a set of…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2008-11-26 R. S. Thorne , H. Boettcher , A. M. Cooper-Sarkar , B. Reisert , V. Shekelyan , W. J. Stirling , D. R. Stump , A. Vogt

The uncertainty principle limits quantum states such that when one observable takes predictable values there must be some other mutually unbiased observables which take uniformly random values. We show that this restrictive condition plays…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-08-12 Oscar C. O. Dahlsten , Andrew J. P. Garner , Vlatko Vedral
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