Related papers: Maximum Variation of Total Risk
The time value of money is a critical factor not only in risk analysis, but also in insurance and financial applications. In this paper, we consider a special class of set-valued risk statistics by introducing the time value of money. In…
In this paper we consider the contextual multi-armed bandit problem for linear payoffs under a risk-averse criterion. At each round, contexts are revealed for each arm, and the decision maker chooses one arm to pull and receives the…
Jakimiuk et al. (2024) have proved that, if $X$ is an ultra log-concave random variable with integral mean, then $$\max_n \mathbb{P}\{X=n\} \geq \max_n \mathbb{P} \{Z=n\}\,,$$ where $Z$ is a Poisson random variable with the parameter…
The asymptotics of the probability that the self-intersection local time of a random walk on $\Z^d$ exceeds its expectation by a large amount is a fascinating subject because of its relation to some models from Statistical Mechanics, to…
A connection is made between the random turns model of vicious walkers and random permutations indexed by their increasing subsequences. Consequently the scaled distribution of the maximum displacements in a particular asymmeteric version…
Let $\{X_t, t \geq 1\}$ be a sequence of identically distributed and pairwise asymptotically independent random variables with regularly varying tails and $\{ \Theta_t, t\geq1 \}$ be a sequence of positive random variables independent of…
We consider random simple temporal graphs in which every edge of the complete graph $K_n$ appears once within the time interval [0,1] independently and uniformly at random. Our main result is a sharp threshold on the size of any maximum…
We present an estimator of the covariance matrix $\Sigma$ of random $d$-dimensional vector from an i.i.d. sample of size $n$. Our sole assumption is that this vector satisfies a bounded $L^p-L^2$ moment assumption over its one-dimensional…
We study the probability $p \equiv p_\eta(t)$ that two directed polymers in a given random potential $\eta$ and with fixed and nearby endpoints, do not cross until time $t$. This probability is itself a random variable (over samples $\eta$)…
The position $x(t)$ of a particle diffusing in a one-dimensional uncorrelated and time dependent random medium is simply Gaussian distributed in the typical direction, i.e. along the ray $x=v_0 t$, where $v_0$ is the average drift. However,…
It is known that large deviations of sums of subexponential random variables are most likely realised by deviations of a single random variable. In this article we give a detailed picture of how subexponential random variables are…
The TCP window size process appears in the modeling of the famous Transmission Control Protocol used for data transmission over the Internet. This continuous time Markov process takes its values in [0, \infty), is ergodic and irreversible.…
In the context of mod-Gaussian convergence, as defined previously in our work with J. Jacod, we obtain lower bounds for local probabilities for a sequence of random vectors which are approximately Gaussian with increasing covariance. This…
Let $\eta_1$, $\eta_2,\ldots$ be independent copies of a random variable $\eta$ with zero mean and finite variance which is bounded from the right, that is, $\eta\leq b$ almost surely for some $b>0$. Considering different types of the…
The generalization error (risk) of a supervised statistical learning algorithm quantifies its prediction ability on previously unseen data. Inspired by exponential tilting, \citet{li2020tilted} proposed the {\it tilted empirical risk} (TER)…
We study the problem of estimating the common mean $\mu$ of $n$ independent symmetric random variables with different and unknown standard deviations $\sigma_1 \le \sigma_2 \le \cdots \le\sigma_n$. We show that, under some mild regularity…
Suppose we are given a time series or a signal $x(t)$ for $0\leq t\leq T$. We consider the problem of predicting the signal in the interval $T<t\leq T+t_{f}$ from a knowledge of its history and nothing more. We ask the following question:…
In this article, the complete moment convergence for the partial sum of moving average processes $\{X_n=\sum_{i=-\infty}^{\infty}a_iY_{i+n},n\ge 1\}$ is estabished under some proper conditions, where $\{Y_i,-\infty<i<\infty\}$ is a sequence…
In this paper, we study the risk bounds for samples independently drawn from an infinitely divisible (ID) distribution. In particular, based on a martingale method, we develop two deviation inequalities for a sequence of random variables of…
It is well known that a random vector with given marginal distributions is comonotonic if and only if it has the largest sum with respect to the convex order [ Kaas, Dhaene, Vyncke, Goovaerts, Denuit (2002), A simple geometric proof that…