Related papers: Maximum Variation of Total Risk

We study asymptotic probabilities of attaining the maximum in heterogeneous Gaussian samples. In the two-group setting, the first sample has variance $1$ and size $n_1$, while the second has variance $\sigma^2>1$ and size $n_2$. We…

Let $\Delta(x)$ denote the error term in the Dirichlet divisor problem, and let $E(T)$ denote the error term in the asymptotic formula for the mean square of $|\zeta(1/2+it)|$. If $E^*(t) := E(t) - 2\pi\Delta^*(t/(2\pi))$ with $\Delta^*(x)…

Consider a continuous time random walk in $\mathbb{Z}$ with independent and exponentially distributed jumps $\pm1$. The model in this paper consists in an infinite number of such random walks starting from the complement of…

A tight upper bound is given on the distribution of the maximum of a supermartingale. Specifically, it is shown that if $Y$ is a semimartingale with initial value zero and quadratic variation process $[Y,Y]$ such that $Y + [Y,Y]$ is a…

Consider the time T_oz when the random walk on a weighted graph started at the vertex o first hits the vertex set z. We present lower bounds for T_oz in terms of the volume of z and the graph distance between o and z. The bounds are for…

In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

We consider random walks, say $W_n=(M_0, M_1,\dots, M_n)$, of length $n$ starting at 0 and based on the martingale sequence $M_k$ with differences $X_m=M_m-M_{m-1}$. Assuming that the differences are bounded, $|X_m|\leq 1$, we solve the…

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

For any real a>0 we determine the supremum of the real \sigma\ such that \zeta(\sigma+it) = a for some real t. For 0 < a < 1, a = 1, and a > 1 the results turn out to be quite different.} We also determine the supremum E of the real parts…

A common statistical situation concerns inferring an unknown distribution Q(x) from a known distribution P(y), where X (dimension n), and Y (dimension m) have a known functional relationship. Most commonly, n<m, and the task is relatively…

Being able to forcast extreme volatility is a central issue in financial risk management. We present a large volatility predicting method based on the distribution of recurrence intervals between volatilities exceeding a certain threshold…

The extremes of a stationary time series typically occur in clusters. A primary measure for this phenomenon is the extremal index, representing the reciprocal of the expected cluster size. Both a disjoint and a sliding blocks estimator for…

We consider the maximum $M_t$ of branching random walk in a space-inhomogeneous random environment on $\mathbb{Z}$. In this model the branching rate while at some location $x\in\mathbb{Z}$ is randomized in an i.i.d. manner. We prove that…

In this paper, we develop the lower and upper bounds of worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, and symmetric unimodal distributions when mean and variance information are available. We also consider the sharp…

This article aims to introduced a new lifetime distribution named as exponentiated xgamma distribution (EXGD). The new generalization obtained from xgamma distribution, a special finite mixture of exponential and gamma distributions. The…

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

Given finite-dimensional random vectors $Y$, $X$, and $Z$ that form a Markov chain in that order (i.e., $Y \to X \to Z$), we derive upper bounds on the excess minimum risk using generalized information divergence measures. Here, $Y$ is a…

We show that the twisted second moments of the Riemann zeta function averaged over the arithmetic progression $1/2 + i(an + b)$ with $a > 0$, $b$ real, exhibits a remarkable correspondance with the analogous continuous average and derive…