Related papers: A Calculator for Confidence Intervals
The evaluation of the error to be attributed to cut efficiencies is a common question in the practice of experimental particle physics. Specifically, the need to evaluate the efficiency of the cuts for background removal, when they are…
Confidence sequences are confidence intervals that can be sequentially tracked, and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. This paper presents confidence sequences for a univariate mean of an unknown distribution with a known…
Upper limits and confidence intervals are a convenient way to present experimental results. With modern experiments producing more and more data, it is often necessary to reduce the volume of the results for convenient distribution. A…
Reliability sensitivity analysis is concerned with measuring the influence of a system's uncertain input parameters on its probability of failure. Statistically dependent inputs present a challenge in both computing and interpreting these…
How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…
A measure of primal importance for capturing the serial dependence of a stationary time series at extreme levels is provided by the limiting cluster size distribution. New estimators based on a blocks declustering scheme are proposed and…
There are over 55 different ways to construct a confidence respectively credible interval (CI) for the binomial proportion. Methods to compare them are necessary to decide which should be used in practice. The interval score has been…
We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…
To segment a sequence of independent random variables at an unknown number of change-points, we introduce new procedures that are based on thresholding the likelihood ratio statistic. We also study confidence regions based on the likelihood…
This paper reports the first application of a new technique to measure the beta-decay half -lives of exotic nuclei in complex background conditions. Since standard tools were not adapted to extract the relevant information, a new analysis…
Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…
We consider the general problem of estimating probabilities which arise as a union of dependent events. We propose a flexible series of estimators for such probabilities, and describe variance reduction schemes applied to the proposed…
We show that confidence intervals in a variance component model, with asymptotically correct uniform coverage probability, can be obtained by inverting certain test-statistics based on the score for the restricted likelihood. The results…
The extensive deployment of probabilistic algorithms has radically changed our perspective on several well-established computational notions. Correctness is probably the most basic one. While a typical probabilistic program cannot be said…
The fraction nonconforming is a key quality measure used in statistical quality control design in clinical laboratory medicine. The confidence bounds of normal populations of measurements for the fraction nonconforming each of the lower and…
The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly…
When searching for new physics effects, collaborations will often wish to publish upper limits and intervals with a lower confidence level than the threshold they would set to claim an excess or a discovery. However, confidence intervals…
A new approach to provide a fruitful analysis of signal amplitude is proposed. It is this method that has made it possible to eliminate some observed artificial events from the list of candidates for decays of superheavy nuclei. Examples of…
For any class of one-sided $1-\alpha$ confidence intervals with a certain monotonicity ordering on the random confidence limit, the smallest interval, in the sense of the set inclusion for the difference of two proportions of two…
This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of Public Health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is…