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We study persistence probabilities for random walks in correlated Gaussian random environment first studied by Oshanin, Rosso and Schehr. From the persistence results, we can deduce properties of critical branching processes with offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-21 Frank Aurzada , Alexis Devulder , Nadine Guillotin-Plantard , Françoise Pène

Although the bipartite shopping graphs are straightforward to model search behavior, they suffer from two challenges: 1) The majority of items are sporadically searched and hence have noisy/sparse query associations, leading to a…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Yan Han , Edward W Huang , Wenqing Zheng , Nikhil Rao , Zhangyang Wang , Karthik Subbian

General upper tail estimates are given for counting edges in a random induced subhypergraph of a fixed hypergraph H, with an easy proof by estimating the moments. As an application we consider the numbers of arithmetic progressions and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Svante Janson , Andrzej Rucinski

Precision matrix estimation in a multivariate Gaussian model is fundamental to network estimation. Although there exist both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to this, it is difficult to obtain good Bayesian and frequentist properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-19 Ksheera Sagar , Sayantan Banerjee , Jyotishka Datta , Anindya Bhadra

In this paper, we study the estimation of a rank-one spiked tensor in the presence of heavy tailed noise. Our results highlight some of the fundamental similarities and differences in the tradeoff between statistical and computational…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Arnab Auddy , Ming Yuan

Random matrices acting on structured sets play a fundamental role in high-dimensional geometry, compressed sensing, and randomized algorithms. Existing results primarily focus on subgaussian models, when random matrices act as…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-11 Tiankun Diao , Xuanang Hu , Vladimir V. Ulyanov , Hanchao Wang

We prove exponential moments for linear combinations of the number of individuals of each type of a whole multitype Poissonian Galton Watson process. We give sharp estimates for such quantities, which depend on the expectation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-14 Théo Leblanc

We demonstrate that distributions of human response times have power-law tails and, among closed-form distributions, are best fit by the generalized inverse gamma distribution. We speculate that the task difficulty tracks the half-width of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-29 Tao Ma , John G. Holden , R. A. Serota

Upper bounds for the probabilities $\mathbb{P}(F\geq \mathbb{E} F + r)$ and $\mathbb{P}(F\leq \mathbb{E} F - r)$ are proved, where $F$ is a certain component count associated with a random geometric graph built over a Poisson point process…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-14 Sascha Bachmann

For regularized estimation, the upper tail behavior of the random Lipschitz coefficient associated with empirical loss functions is known to play an important role in the error bound of Lasso for high dimensional generalized linear models.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-09-07 Zhiyi Chi

We study large deviation probabilities for a sum of dependent random variables from a heavy-tailed factor model, assuming that the components are regularly varying. We identify conditions where both the factor and the idiosyncratic terms…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-05 Boualem Djehiche , Jens Svensson

We provide a new extension of Breiman's Theorem on computing tail probabilities of a product of random variables to a multivariate setting. In particular, we give a complete characterization of regular variation on cones in $[0,\infty)^d$…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Claudia Klüppelberg

We study linear chance-constrained problems where the coefficients follow a Gaussian mixture distribution. We provide mixed-binary quadratic programs that give inner and outer approximations of the chance constraint based on piecewise…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Shibshankar Dey , Sanjay Mehrotra , Anirudh Subramanyam

We consider removing lower order statistics from the classical Hill estimator in extreme value statistics, and compensating for it by rescaling the remaining terms. Trajectories of these trimmed statistics as a function of the extent of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-30 Martin Bladt , Hansjoerg Albrecher , Jan Beirlant

We consider two different portfolios of proportional reinsurance of the same pool of risks. This contribution is concerned with Gaussian-like risks, which means that for large values the survival function of such risks is, up to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-06 Julia Farkas , Enkelejd Hashorva

A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-05-20 Éva Rácz , János Kertész , Zoltán Eisler

We consider the following recurrence relation with random i.i.d. coefficients $(a_n,b_n)$: $$ x_{n+1}=a_{n+1} x_n+b_{n+1} $$ where $a_n\in GL(d,\mathbb{R}),b_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$. Under natural conditions on $(a_n,b_n)$ this equation has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Yves Guivarc'h

We establish a rather sharp two-side estimate for the tail probability of the derivative martingale limit in a branching random walk throughout the entire subcritical regime, confirming a conjecture by Lacoin, Rhodes, and Vargas (\emph{Duke…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Xinxin Chen , Yichao Huang , Heng Ma

We study generalisations of a simple, combinatorial proof of a Chernoff bound similar to the one by Impagliazzo and Kabanets (RANDOM, 2010). In particular, we prove a randomized version of the hitting property of expander random walks and…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2015-01-16 Jan Hązła , Thomas Holenstein

Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Marc Taberner-Ortiz , Manfred Denker