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We study the tail behavior of regret in stochastic multi-armed bandits for algorithms that are asymptotically optimal in expectation. While minimizing expected regret is the classical objective, recent work shows that even such algorithms…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Subhodip Panda , Shubhada Agrawal

In many applications, significant correlations between arrivals of load-generating events make the numerical evaluation of the load of a system a challenging problem. Here, we construct very accurate approximations of the workload…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-05-02 Eleni Vatamidou , Ivo J. B. F. Adan , Maria Vlasiou , Bert Zwart

We propose a mean functional which exists for any probability distributions, and which characterizes the Pareto distribution within the set of distributions with finite left endpoint. This is in sharp contrast to the mean excess plot which…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-05 Bernhard Klar

We consider (robust) inference in the context of a factor model for tensor-valued sequences. We study the consistency of the estimated common factors and loadings space when using estimators based on minimising quadratic loss functions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-29 Matteo Barigozzi , Yong He , Lingxiao Li , Lorenzo Trapani

A tail empirical process for heavy-tailed and right-censored data is introduced and its Gaussian approximation is established. In this context, a (weighted) new Hill-type estimator for positive extreme value index is proposed and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-06 Brahim Brahimi , Djamel Meraghni , Abdelhakim Necir , Louiza Soltane

We use a series of pre-registered, incentive-compatible online experiments to investigate how people evaluate and choose among different waiting time distributions. Our main findings are threefold. First, consistent with prior literature,…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-09 Evgeny Kagan , Kyle Hyndman , Andrew Davis

A particular direction of recent advance about stochastic deep-learning algorithms has been about uncovering a rather mysterious heavy-tailed nature of the stationary distribution of these algorithms, even when the data distribution is not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-28 Sayar Karmakar , Anirbit Mukherjee

Since the celebrated works of Russo and Zou (2016,2019) and Xu and Raginsky (2017), it has been well known that the generalization error of supervised learning algorithms can be bounded in terms of the mutual information between their input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Gábor Lugosi , Gergely Neu

We propose a class of weighted least squares estimators for the tail index of a distribution function with a regularly varying upper tail. Our approach is based on the method developed by \cite{Holan2010} for the Parzen tail index.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-02 Amenah AL-Najafi , László Viharos

In this paper, the author proposes a series of multilevel double hashing schemes called cascade hash tables. They use several levels of hash tables. In each table, we use the common double hashing scheme. Higher level hash tables work as…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-06-26 Shaohua Li

This paper considers the basic question of how strong of a probabilistic guarantee can a hash table, storing $n$ $(1 + \Theta(1)) \log n$-bit key/value pairs, offer? Past work on this question has been bottlenecked by limitations of the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2022-09-19 William Kuszmaul

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

We characterise the learning of a mixture of two clouds of data points with generic centroids via empirical risk minimisation in the high dimensional regime, under the assumptions of generic convex loss and convex regularisation. Each cloud…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-19 Urte Adomaityte , Gabriele Sicuro , Pierpaolo Vivo

A scan statistic is examined for the purpose of testing the existence of a global peak in a random process with dependent variables of any distribution. The scan statistic tail probability is obtained based on the covariance of the moving…

Computation · Statistics 2013-09-24 Anat Reiner-Benaim

We investigate the application of the Adaptive Multilevel Splitting algorithm for the estimation of tail probabilities of solutions of Stochastic Differential Equations evaluated at a given time, and of associated temporal averages. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-27 Charles-Edouard Bréhier , Tony Lelièvre

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

There are so many models in the literature that it is difficult for practitioners to decide which combinations are likely to be effective for a new task. This paper attempts to address this question by capturing relationships among…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-08 Jiaji Huang , Qiang Qiu , Kenneth Church

A common bottleneck in evaluating extremal performance measures is that, due to their very nature, tail data are often very limited. The conventional approach selects the best probability distribution from tail data using parametric…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-03 Henry Lam , Clementine Mottet

We derive two-sided estimates on moments and tails of Gaussian chaoses, that is, random variables of the form $\sum a_{i_1,...,i_d}g_{i_1}... g_{i_d}$, where $g_i$ are i.i.d. ${\mathcal{N}}(0,1)$ r.v.'s. Estimates are exact up to constants…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rafał Latała

We present upper and lower bounds for the tail distribution of the stationary waiting time $D$ in the stable $GI/GI/s$ FCFS queue. These bounds depend on the value of the traffic load $\rho$ which is the ratio of mean service and mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-20 Sergey Foss , Dmitry Korshunov