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In a recent paper, Shah [arXiv:2502.03073] derived an explicit expression for the distribution of occupancy times for a two-state Markov chain, using a method based on enumerating sample paths. We consider here the more general problem of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Phil Pollett

We consider the down/up crossing property of weighted Markov branching processes. The joint probability distribution of multi crossing numbers of such processes are obtained. In particular, for Markov branching processes, the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-20 Yanyun Li , Junping Li

The generalized master equation or the equivalent continuous time random walk equations can be used to compute the macroscopic first passage time distribution (FPTD) of a complex stochastic system from short-term microscopic simulation…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 David Shalloway , Anton Faradjian

In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Aleksandr A. Shchegolev

For predicting the kinetics of nucleic acid reactions, continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are widely used. The rate of a reaction can be obtained through the mean first passage time (MFPT) of its CTMC. However, a typical issue in CTMCs…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-09-23 Sedigheh Zolaktaf , Frits Dannenberg , Mark Schmidt , Anne Condon , Erik Winfree

This paper contributes an in-depth study of properties of continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) on non-negative integer lattices $\N_0^d$, with particular interest in one-dimensional CTMCs with polynomial transitions rates. Such stochastic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-22 Chuang Xu , Mads Christian Hansen , Carsten Wiuf

To quantify the randomness of Markov trajectories with fixed initial and final states, Ekroot and Cover proposed a closed-form expression for the entropy of trajectories of an irreducible finite state Markov chain. Numerous applications,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-18 Mohamed Kafsi , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

When the initial and transition probabilities of a finite Markov chain in discrete time are not well known, we should perform a sensitivity analysis. This is done by considering as basic uncertainty models the so-called credal sets that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Gert de Cooman , Filip Hermans , Erik Quaeghebeur

A popular method to compute first-passage probabilities in continuous-time Markov chains is by numerically inverting their Laplace transforms. Past decades, the scientific computing community has developed excellent numerical methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-01 Debarati Bhaumik , Marko A. A. Boon , Daan Crommelin , Barry Koren , Bert Zwart

This paper considers the mean waiting times in discrete-time preemptive-resume and nonpreemptive priority single-server queues fed by K independent batch Markovian arrival streams with geometrically distributed idle periods. While being…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Tetsuya Takine

This paper examines a discrete-time queuing system with applications to telecommunications traffic. The arrival process is a particular Markov modulated process which belongs to the class of discrete batched Markovian arrival processes. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-28 Richard G. Clegg

Random walks (or Markov chains) are models extensively used in theoretical computer science. Several tools, including analysis of quantities such as hitting and mixing times, are helpful for devising randomized algorithms. A notable example…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-07-12 Lorenzo Laneve , Francesco Tacchino , Ivano Tavernelli

The influence of a time-periodic forcing on stochastic processes can essentially be emphasized in the large time behaviour of their paths. The statistics of transition in a simple Markov chain model permits to quantify this influence. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-03-27 Samuel Herrmann , Damien Landon

In this paper we develop a statistical estimation technique to recover the transition kernel $P$ of a Markov chain $X=(X_m)_{m \in \mathbb N}$ in presence of censored data. We consider the situation where only a sub-sequence of $X$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-05 Flavia Barsotti , Yohann De Castro , Thibault Espinasse , Paul Rochet

Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-26 Anru Zhang , Mengdi Wang

An efficient discrete time and space Markov chain approximation employing a Brownian bridge correction for computing curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities for general diffusion processes was recently proposed in Liang and Borovkov…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-24 Vincent Liang , Konstantin Borovkov

In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-27 Michel Mandjes , Peter Spreij

Markov chains provide a foundational framework for modeling sequential stochastic processes, with the transition probability matrix characterizing the dynamics of state evolution. While classical estimation methods such as maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-11 Agamani Saha , Souvik Roy

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-04 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , Csaba Szepesvári

The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-26 Jamaal Ahmad , Martin Bladt , Mogens Bladt