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Modeling and simulating movement of vehicles in established transportation infrastructures, especially in large urban road networks is an important task. It helps with understanding and handling traffic problems, optimizing traffic…
We consider discrete-time Markov bridges, chains whose initial and final states coincide. We derive exact finite-time formulae for the joint probability distributions of additive functionals of trajectories. We apply our theory to…
We derive an approximate but explicit formula for the Mean First Passage Time of a random walker between a source and a target node of a directed and weighted network. The formula does not require any matrix inversion, and it takes as only…
We present a general approach to study the flooding time (a measure of how fast information spreads) in dynamic graphs (graphs whose topology changes with time according to a random process). We consider arbitrary converging Markovian…
The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
Analysing stationary point databases to extract phenomenological rate constants can become time-consuming for systems with large potential energy barriers. In the present contribution we analyse several different approaches to this problem.…
There is a growing interest in methods for detecting and interpreting changes in experimental time evolution data. Based on measured time series, the quantitative characterization of dynamical phase transitions at bifurcation points of the…
We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate…
In a specific class of open quantum systems with finite and fixed numbers of collapsed quantum states, the semi-Markov process method is used to calculate the large deviations of the first passage time statistics. The core formula is an…
We propose a discrete time discrete space Markov chain approximation with a Brownian bridge correction for computing curvilinear boundary crossing probabilities of a general diffusion process on a finite time interval. For broad classes of…
We derive a general formula for computing the expected first return time of a random walk on a finite graph. Using this framework, we calculate the expected first return time in various settings over bounded rectangular grids with different…
We consider parametric version of fixed-delay continuous-time Markov chains (or equivalently deterministic and stochastic Petri nets, DSPN) where fixed-delay transitions are specified by parameters, rather than concrete values. Our goal is…
We establish non-asymptotic error bounds for the classical Maximal Likelihood Estimation of the transition matrix of a given Markov chain. Meanwhile, in the reversible case, we propose a new reversibility-preserving online Symmetric…
We are interested in the analysis of very large continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with many distinct rates. Such models arise naturally in the context of reliability analysis, e.g., of computer network performability analysis, of power…
We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…
One problem of wide interest involves estimating expected crossing-times. Several tools have been developed to solve this problem beginning with the works of Wald and the theory of sequential analysis. An extension of his approach is…
This paper considers the problem of randomized influence maximization over a Markovian graph process: given a fixed set of nodes whose connectivity graph is evolving as a Markov chain, estimate the probability distribution (over this fixed…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…
Given a discrete source distribution $\mu$ and discrete target distribution $\nu$ on a common finite state space $\mathcal{X}$, we are tasked with transporting $\mu$ to $\nu$ using a given discrete-time Markov chain $X$ with the quickest…