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Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…
The paper studies an improved estimate for the rate of convergence for nonlinear homogeneous discrete-time Markov chains. These processes are nonlinear in terms of the distribution law. Hence, the transition kernels are dependent on the…
We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…
We introduce a general approach for the study of the collective dynamics of non-interacting random walkers on connected networks. We analyze the movement of $R$ independent (Markovian) walkers, each defined by its own transition matrix. By…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
It is well-known that 0 is the absorbing state for a branching system. Each particle in the system lives a random long time and gives a random number of new particles at its death time. It stops when the system has no particle. This paper…
Deriving the time-dependent expected reward function associated with a continuous-time Markov chain involves the computation of its transient deviation matrix. In this paper we focus on the special case of a finite quasi-birth-and-death…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…
Let $\{X_n\}$ be a stationary and ergodic time series taking values from a finite or countably infinite set ${\cal X}$. Assume that the distribution of the process is otherwise unknown. We propose a sequence of stopping times $\lambda_n$…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…
Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes form a general class of non-diffusion stochastic models that involve both deterministic trajectories and random jumps at random times. In this paper, we state a new characterization of the jump rate…
We present three algorithms for calculating rate constants and sampling transition paths for rare events in simulations with stochastic dynamics. The methods do not require a priori knowledge of the phase space density and are suitable for…
Metastability is a physical phenomenon ubiquitous in first order phase transitions. A fruitful mathematical way to approach this phenomenon is the study of rare transitions Markov chains. For Metropolis chains associated with Statistical…
We consider discrete-time Markov chains and study large deviations of the pair empirical occupation measure, which is useful to compute fluctuations of pure-additive and jump-type observables. We provide an exact expression for the…
We study discrete time Markov processes with periodic or open boundary conditions and with inhomogeneous rates in the bulk. The Markov matrices are given by the inhomogeneous transfer matrices introduced previously to prove the…
We derive a simple expression for the probability of trajectories of a master equation. The expression is particularly useful when the number of states is small and permits the calculation of observables that can be defined as functionals…
Markov automata combine non-determinism, probabilistic branching, and exponentially distributed delays. This compositional variant of continuous-time Markov decision processes is used in reliability engineering, performance evaluation and…
Predictive constructions are a powerful way of characterizing the probability law of stochastic processes with certain forms of invariance, such as exchangeability or Markov exchangeability. When de Finetti-like representation theorems are…
In this study, we address the central issue of statistical inference for Markov jump processes using discrete time observations. The primary problem at hand is to accurately estimate the infinitesimal generator of a Markov jump process, a…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…