Related papers: Earthquake forecasting and its verification
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones often causes major destruction to human civilization due to short response time. It is an important yet challenging task to accurately predict this kind of extreme weather event in advance.…
We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…
A probability forecast or probabilistic classifier is reliable or calibrated if the predicted probabilities are matched by ex post observed frequencies, as examined visually in reliability diagrams. The classical binning and counting…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
We have explored the temporal variability of the seismicity at global scale over the last 124 years, as well as its potential drivers. To achieve this, we constructed and analyzed an averaged global seismicity curve for earthquakes of…
Insurance risk arising from catastrophes such as earthquakes a component of the Minimum Capital Test for federally regulated property and casualty insurance companies. Analyzing earthquake insurance risk requires well-fitted spatio-temporal…
In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal…
Within the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework, the fragility model plays a pivotal role. Such a model represents the probability that the engineering demand parameter (EDP) exceeds a certain safety threshold given a…
Migration-based earthquake location methods may encounter the polarity reversal issue due to the non-explosive components of seismic source, leading to an unfocused migration image. Various methods have been proposed, yet producing an…
Seismic inversion refers to the process of estimating reservoir rock properties from seismic reflection data. Conventional and machine learning-based inversion workflows usually work in a trace-by-trace fashion on seismic data, utilizing…
Effective structural assessment of urban infrastructure is essential for sustainable land use and resilience to climate change and natural hazards. Seismic wave methods are widely applied in these areas for subsurface characterization and…
A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in…
We study the asymptotic distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is asymptotically…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…
We propose a model-agnostic framework for short-term occupational accident forecasting that leverages safety inspections and models accident occurrences as binary time series. The approach generates daily predictions, which are then…
Earthquake monitoring is vital for understanding the physics of earthquakes and assessing seismic hazards. A standard monitoring workflow includes the interrelated and interdependent tasks of phase picking, association, and location.…
In this article we implemented simulations of the OFC model for earthquakes for two different topologies: regular and small-world, where in the latter the links are randomly rewired with probability $p$ . In both topologies, we have studied…
The objective-based forecasting considers the asymmetric and non-linear impacts of forecasting errors on decision objectives, thus improving the effectiveness of its downstream decision-making process. However, existing objective-based…