Related papers: Earthquake forecasting and its verification
he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…
Characteristic versus critical features of earthquakes are studied on the basis of the Olami-Feder-Christensen model. It is found that the local recurrence-time distribution exhibits a sharp $\delta$-function-like peak corresponding to…
In this paper we describe a general framework for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and propose the Pattern Method and a simpler special case called the $\Delta t$ Method as effective approaches.…
We develop an efficient numerical scheme to solve accurately the set of nonlinear integral equations derived previously in (Saichev and Sornette, 2007), which describes the distribution of inter-event times in the framework of a general…
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…
In recent years, AI and deep learning earthquake detectors, combined with an increasing number of dense seismic networks deployed worldwide, have further contributed to the creation of massive seismic catalogs, significantly lowering their…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
We develop a probabilistic framework based on the conjunction of states of information between data and model, to jointly retrieve earthquake source parameters and anelastic attenuation factor from inversion of displacement amplitude…
The lack of a comprehensive decision-making approach at the community level is an important problem that warrants immediate attention. Network-level decision-making algorithms need to solve large-scale optimization problems that pose…
The $b$-value in earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution quantifies the relative frequency of large versus small earthquakes. Monitoring its evolution could provide fundamental insights into temporal variations of stress on different…
Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…
Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…
The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the…
Earthquakes are major hazards to humans, buildings and infrastructure. Early warning methods aim to provide advance notice of incoming strong shaking to enable preventive action and mitigate seismic risk. Their usefulness depends on…
We construct a one-dimensional piecewise linear intermittent map from the interevent time distribution for a given renewal process. Then, we characterize intermittency by the asymptotic behavior near the indifferent fixed point in the…
Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…
We study earthquake interval time statistics, paying special attention to inter-occurrence times in the two-dimensional (2D) stick-slip (block-slider) model. Inter-occurrence times are the time interval between successive earthquakes on all…