Related papers: Earthquake forecasting and its verification
This paper presents a framework for decision-making regarding post-earthquake assessment of instrumented buildings in a manner consistent with performance-based design criteria. This framework is achieved by simultaneously combining and…
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis…
We study the accuracy of forecasts in the diffusion index forecast model with possibly weak loadings. The default option to construct forecasts is to estimate the factors through principal component analysis (PCA) on the available predictor…
Earthquakes are a major threat to nations worldwide. Earthquake detection is an important scientific challenge, not only for its social impacts, but also since it reflects the actual degree of understanding of the physical processes…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
In modeling spatial extremes, the dependence structure is classically inferred by assuming that block maxima derive from max-stable processes. Weather stations provide daily records rather than just block maxima. The point process approach…
We develop a technique to estimate spatially varying seismicity patterns. It is based on a Gaussian approximation of the underlying Poisson Process. A link function is used to estimate local moments of the seismicity from observed…
Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems implemented by citizen science initiatives are characterized by a significant variability in their smartphone network geometry. This has an direct impact on the earthquake detection…
A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range of possible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by means of full…
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede both earthquake research and hazard mitigation. Well-worn…
This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a…
Seismic phase picking, which aims to determine the arrival time of P- and S-waves according to seismic waveforms, is fundamental to earthquake monitoring. Generally, manual phase picking is trustworthy, but with the increasing number of…
The paper is a first attempt for statistical estimation of method for a short time prediction of incoming earthquake in the Balkan and Black Sea region from January to June, 2002. The essence of the discovery is that the geomagnetic local…
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…
Urban flood emergency response increasingly relies on infrastructure impact forecasts rather than hazard variables alone. However, real-time predictions are unreliable due to biased rainfall, incomplete flood knowledge, and sparse…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
Earthquake hypocenters form the basis for a wide array of seismological analyses. Pick-based earthquake location workflows rely on the accuracy of phase pickers and may be biased when dealing with complex earthquake sequences in…
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are point processes that have found prominence in seismological modeling. Its success has led to the development of a number of different versions of the ETAS model. Among these extensions is…
Cloud Computing is an emerging area. The main aim of the initial search-and-rescue period after strong earthquakes is to reduce the whole number of mortalities. One main trouble rising in this period is to and the greatest assignment of…
The concept of proper time, which is different from universal time, has been introduced into the physics of earthquakes. The global activity of strong earthquakes was chosen as the object of study. We consider the sequence of earthquakes as…