Related papers: Predictability in the ETAS Model of Interacting Tr…
Two recent papers on prediction of chaotic systems, one on multi-view embedding1 , and the second on prediction in projection2 provide empirical evidence to support particular prediction methods for chaotic systems. Multi-view embedding1 is…
Common event-triggered state estimation (ETSE) algorithms save communication in networked control systems by predicting agents' behavior, and transmitting updates only when the predictions deviate significantly. The effectiveness in…
Terra Seismic can predict most major earthquakes (M6.2 or greater) at least 2 - 5 months before they will strike. Global earthquake prediction is based on determinations of the stressed areas that will start to behave abnormally before…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
A modified Carlson-Langer model for earthquakes is proposed, which includes nonlinear visco-elasticity. Several aftershocks are generated after the main shock owing to the damping of the additional visco-elastic force. Both the…
A new forecasting strategy for stochastic systems is introduced. It is inspired by the concept of anticipated synchronization between pairs of chaotic oscillators, recently developed in the area of Dynamical Systems, and by the earthquake…
No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months). However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. These are primarily based on the…
The correct identification of clusters is crucial for an accurate monitoring of the spread of a disease and also in many other natural, social and physical phenomena which exhibit an epidemic structure. Nevertheless, even when an accurate…
The present paper considers the model-based and data-driven control of unknown linear time-invariant discrete-time systems under event-triggering and self-triggering transmission schemes. To this end, we begin by presenting a dynamic…
``Remote triggering" refers to the inducement of earthquakes by weak perturbations that emanate from far away sources, typically intense earthquakes that happen at much larger distances than their nearby aftershocks, sometimes even around…
In order to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a densely populated urban area, it would in principle be necessary to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of individual and aggregate buildings. These detailed seismic analyses, however, are…
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip…
The elementary theory of relaxation of the source cooling down after the main shock of an earthquake is presented axiomatically. The names of the objects under study are given and the relationships between them are determined. A new basic…
Prediction in complex systems at criticality is believed to be very difficult, if not impossible. Of particular interest is whether earthquakes, whose distribution follows a power law (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution, are in principle…
We develop a feedback control method for networked epidemic spreading processes. In contrast to most prior works which consider mean field, open-loop control schemes, the present work develops a novel framework for feedback control of…
We study the seismicity (global seismic activity) that occurred in Greece between 1976 and 2009 based on the dataset reported in Makropoulos et al., 2012, using concepts of Non-extensive Statistical Physics. By considering the entire and…
The frictional instability associated with earthquake initiation and earthquake dynamics is believed to be mainly controlled by the dynamics of fragmented rocks within the fault gauge. Principal features of the emerging seismicity (e.g.…
Power systems are developing very fast nowadays, both in size and in complexity; this situation is a challenge for Early Event Detection (EED). This paper proposes a data- driven unsupervised learning method to handle this challenge.…
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…
Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…