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Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…
Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…
The development of new earthquake forecasting models is often motivated by one of the following complementary goals: to gain new insights into the governing physics and to produce improved forecasts quantified by objective metrics. Often,…
Induced seismicity has emerged as a source of a significant earthquake hazard associated with recent development of unconventional energy resources. Therefore, it is imperative to develop stochastic models that can accurately describe the…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Many point process models have been proposed for describing and forecasting earthquake occurrences in seismically active zones such as California, but the problem of how best to compare and evaluate the goodness of fit of such models…
We study the predictability of large events in self-organizing systems. We focus on a set of models which have been studied as analogs of earthquake faults and fault systems, and apply methods based on techniques which are of current…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our new point is to demonstrate that the…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…
Recent observation studies have revealed that earthquakes are classified into several different categories. Each category might be characterized by the unique statistical feature in the time series, but the present understanding is still…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
The empirical Bath's law states that the average difference in magnitude between a mainshock and its largest aftershock is 1.2, regardless of the mainshock magnitude. Following Vere-Jones [1969] and Console et al. [2003], we show that the…
The elementary theory of aftershocks, being relatively simple mathematically, belongs to the basics of earthquake physics. The paper briefly outlines the concepts and ideas of the theory, provides equations for the relaxation of the source…
Very often damage and fracture in heterogeneous materials exhibit bursty dynamics made of successive impulse-like events which form characteristic aftershock sequences obeying specific scaling laws initially derived in seismology:…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
The decay rate of aftershocks has been modeled as a power law since the pioneering work of Omori in the late nineteenth century. Considered the second most fundamental empirical law after the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, the power law…
Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON…
Static and dynamic stress changes in the Earth's crust induced by an earthquake typically trigger other earthquakes. Identifying such aftershocks is an important step in seismic hazard assessment but has remained challenging, especially in…