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Crustal deformation due to the 2016 earthquake sequence in Kumamoto, Japan, that culminated in a preceding earthquake of magnitude M6.5 and a subsequent M7.3 earthquake 28 hours later, caused stress perturbation on and around the causative…
Together with the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes, Omori's law is the best established empirical characterization of earthquake sequences and states that the number of smaller earthquakes per unit time triggered by a…
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
Quantifying synchronization phenomena based on the timing of events has recently attracted a great deal of interest in various disciplines such as neuroscience or climatology. A multitude of similarity measures has been proposed for this…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
We study earthquake interval time statistics, paying special attention to inter-occurrence times in the two-dimensional (2D) stick-slip (block-slider) model. Inter-occurrence times are the time interval between successive earthquakes on all…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
In numerous applications, for instance in predictive maintenance, there is a pression to predict events ahead of time with as much accuracy as possible while not delaying the decision unduly. This translates in the optimization of a…
We introduce a Self-affine Asperity Model (SAM) for the seismicity that mimics the fault friction by means of two fractional Brownian profiles (fBm) that slide one over the other. An earthquake occurs when there is an overlap of the two…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
This paper revisits the event-triggered control problem from a data-driven perspective, where unknown continuous-time linear systems subject to disturbances are taken into account. Using data information collected off-line instead of…
Weather forecasts are typically given in the form of forecast ensembles obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with varying initial conditions and physics parameterizations. Such ensemble predictions tend to be…
Synchronization is a fundamental component of computational models of human behavior, at both intra-personal and inter-personal level. Event synchronization analysis was originally conceived with the aim of providing a simple and robust…
In this paper we present a versatile method for the investigation of interaction networks and show how to use it to assess effects of indirect interactions and feedback loops. The method allows to evaluate the impact of optimization…
Earthquake phase association algorithms aggregate picked seismic phases from a network of seismometers into individual earthquakes and play an important role in earthquake monitoring. Dense seismic networks and improved phase picking…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…