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The transition from localized to systemic spreading of bacteria, viruses and other agents is a fundamental problem that spans medicine, ecology, biology and agriculture science. We have conducted experiments and simulations in a simple…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2009-11-10 Anna L. Lin , Bernward A. Mann , Gelsy Torres-Oviedo , Bryan Lincoln , Josef Kas , Harry L. Swinney

Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) succeeds to control viral replication in most HIV infected patients. This is normally followed by a reconstitution of the CD4$^+$ T cells pool; however, this does not happen for a substantial…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-18 Ana Jarne , Daniel Commenges , Mélanie Prague , Yves Levy , Rodolphe Thiébaut

Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-30 Laura Di Domenico , Eugenio Valdano , Vittoria Colizza

We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-04-06 Takehisa Hasegawa , Koji Nemoto

We study an infection-age structured epidemic model in which both the infectivity and the rate of loss of immunity depend on the time-since-infection. The model can be equivalently viewed as a nonlinear renewal equation for the incidence of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Francesca Scarabel , Harry Coldwell , Tyler Cassidy

We consider the basic model of virus dynamics in the modeling of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), in a 2D heterogenous environment. It consists of two ODEs for the non-infected and infected $CD_4^+$ $T$ lymphocytes, $T$ and $I$, and a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2009-05-14 Claude-Michel Brauner , Danaelle Jolly , Luca Lorenzi , Rodolphe Thiebaut

We introduce and analyze a within-host dynamical model of the coevolution between rapidly mutating pathogens and the adaptive immune response. Pathogen mutation and a homeostatic constraint on lymphocytes both play a role in allowing the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-08-06 Kimberly J. Schlesinger , Sean P. Stromberg , Jean M. Carlson

The spread of infectious disease and the evolution of antigenically distinct strains are often modeled separately, despite strong feedbacks mediated by host immune memory and heterogeneous contacts. To tackle this challenging problem, we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-04-01 Davide Zanchetta , Vittoria Bettio , Sandro Azaele , Manlio De Domenico

Diseases emerge, persist and vanish in an ongoing battle for available hosts. Hosts, on the other hand, defend themselves by developing immunity that limits the ability of pathogens to reinfect them. We here explore a multi-disease system…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2012-06-29 Jeppe Juul , Kim Sneppen

Models are often employed to integrate knowledge about epidemics across scales and simulate disease dynamics. While these approaches have played a central role in studying the mechanics underlying epidemics, we lack ways to reliably predict…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-09 Sudam Surasinghe , Ketty Kabengele , Paul E. Turner , C. Brandon Ogbunugafor

We consider a general mathematical model of a within-host viral infection with $n$ virus strains and explicit age-since-infection structure for infected cells. In the model, multiple virus strains compete for a population of target cells.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-05-28 Cameron J. Browne

The evolutionary dynamics of human Influenza A virus presents a challenging theoretical problem. An extremely high mutation rate allows the virus to escape, at each epidemic season, the host immune protection elicited by previous…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2016-11-30 Lorenzo Taggi , Francesca Colaiori , Vittorio Loreto , Francesca Tria

To better predict the dynamics of epidemics such as COVID-19, it is important not only to investigate the network of local and long-range contagious contacts but also to understand the temporal dynamics of infectiousness and detectable…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 Miguel A. Cajahuanca Ricaldi , Yaroslav Ispolatov

In a collection of particles performing independent random walks on $\mathbb Z^d$ we study the spread of an infection with SIR dynamics. Susceptible particles become infected when they meet an infected particle. Infected particles heal and…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-14 Duncan Dauvergne , Allan Sly

The dynamics of strongly immunizing childhood infections is still not well understood. Although reports of successful modeling of several incidence data records can be found in the literature, the key determinants of the observed temporal…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-10-09 Ganna Rozhnova , Ana Nunes

Because of its relevance to everyday life, the spreading of viral infections has been of central interest in a variety of scientific communities involved in fighting, preventing and theoretically interpreting epidemic processes. Recent…

Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-30 Aaron Winn , Adam Konkol , Eleni Katifori

In order to explore the impact of periodically evolving domain on the transmission of disease, we study a SIS reaction-diffusion model with logistic term on a periodically evolving domain. The basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ is…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-11-17 Yachun Tong , Zhigui Lin

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection has become one of the most challenging clinical situations to manage in HIV-infected patients. Recently the effect of HCV coinfection on HIV dynamics following initiation of highly active antiretroviral…

Applications · Statistics 2011-05-04 Li Su , Joseph W. Hogan

Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-19 Brian Karrer , M. E. J. Newman