Related papers: A model for complex aftershock sequences
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
We present a mesoscale elastoplastic model of creep in disordered materials which considers temperature-dependent stochastic activation of localized deformation events which are mutually coupled by internal stresses, leading to collective…
Most materials exhibit creep memory under the action of a constant load. The memory behavior is governed by Andrade's creep law, which also has an inherent connection with the Omori-Utsu law of earthquake aftershocks. Both empirical laws…
We propose a time series analysis framework focused on higher-order temporal correlations in the event sequence beyond the interevent time distribution by employing the burst-tree decomposition method. Bursts are clustered events that…
We introduce a modification of the OFC earthquake model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 68, 1244 (1992)] in order to improve resemblance with the Burridge and Knopoff mechanical model and with possible laboratory experiments. A constant force continually…
Motivated by the fact that empirical time series of earthquakes exhibit long-range correlations in space and time and the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of magnitudes, we propose a simple fault model that can account for these types of…
We analyzed the correlations among the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formula describing the aftershock rate after a mainshock as a function of time and magnitude, on the basis of parameter estimates made in previous works…
We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
Slow-slip phenomena, including afterslips and silent earthquakes, are studied using a one-dimensional Burridge--Knopoff model that obeys the rate-and-state dependent friction law. By varying only a few model parameters, this simple model…
Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this…
The statistics of recurrence times in broad areas have been reported to obey universal scaling laws, both for single homogeneous regions (Corral, 2003) and when averaged over multiple regions (Bak et al.,2002). These unified scaling laws…
We report new tests on the Taiwan earthquake catalog of the prediction by the Multifractal Stress Activation (MSA) model that the p-value of the Omori law for the rate of aftershocks following a mainshock is an increasing function of its…
We present a new kind of critical stochastic finite-time-singularity, relying on the interplay between long-memory and extreme fluctuations. We illustrate it on the well-established epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks,…
This paper is devoted to the memory of the outstanding Japanese scientist. In 1896, Fusakichi Omori discovered the law of the aftershocks evolution that bears his name. We represent the Omori law in the form of a differential equation. This…
Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…
The conditional intensity function of a point process is a useful tool for generating probability forecasts of earthquakes. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is defined by a conditional intensity function, and the…
Analysis of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26.12.2004 (M = 9) has allowed us to identify two non- trivial properties of the dynamics of aftershocks. First, the strongest aftershock (M = 7.2) was likely triggered by the round-the-world…