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The analysis of irregularly sampled time series remains a challenging task requiring methods that account for continuous and abrupt changes of sampling resolution without introducing additional biases. The edit-distance is an effective…

There are many scenarios where short- and long-term causal effects of an intervention are different. For example, low-quality ads may increase short-term ad clicks but decrease the long-term revenue via reduced clicks. This work, therefore,…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-23 Lu Cheng , Ruocheng Guo , Huan Liu

Observational data, especially astrophysical data, is often limited by gaps in data that arises due to lack of observations for a variety of reasons. Such inadvertent gaps are usually smoothed over using interpolation techniques. However…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-10-13 Sandip V. George , G. Ambika , R. Misra

Testing for nonlinearity is one of the most important preprocessing steps in nonlinear time series analysis. Typically, this is done by means of the linear surrogate data methods. But it is a known fact that the validity of the results…

Applications · Statistics 2011-02-01 Diego Guarin , Edilson Delgado , Alvaro Orozco

We assume a second-order source separation model where the observed multivariate time series is a linear mixture of latent, temporally uncorrelated time series with some components pure white noise. To avoid the modelling of noise, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-07 Markus Matilainen , Klaus Nordhausen , Joni Virta

Surrogate models provide a quick-to-evaluate approximation to complex computational models and are essential for multi-query problems like design optimisation. The inputs of current deterministic computational models are usually…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-15 Thomas A. Archbold , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Fehmi Cirak

We introduce a method to construct a stochastic surrogate model from the results of dimensionality reduction in forward uncertainty quantification. The hypothesis is that the high-dimensional input augmented by the output of a computational…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-12 Jungho Kim , Sang-ri Yi , Ziqi Wang

A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-01-20 DJ Albers , George Hripcsak

Many datasets describing contacts in a population suffer from incompleteness due to population sampling and underreporting of contacts. Data-driven simulations of spreading processes using such incomplete data lead to an underestimation of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-07 Julie Fournet , Alain Barrat

Simulating sample correlation matrices is important in many areas of statistics. Approaches such as generating Gaussian data and finding their sample correlation matrix or generating random uniform $[-1,1]$ deviates as pairwise correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-09 Johanna Hardin , Stephan Ramon Garcia , David Golan

The increasing use of stochastic models for describing complex phenomena warrants surrogate models that capture the reference model characteristics at a fraction of the computational cost, foregoing potentially expensive Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-10 Neil Kichler , Sher Afghan , Uwe Naumann

When evaluating the effectiveness of a treatment, policy, or intervention, the desired measure of effectiveness may be expensive to collect, not routinely available, or may take a long time to occur. In these cases, it is sometimes possible…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-10 Denis Agniel , Layla Parast , Boris Hejblum

We analyze the variability in the X-ray lightcurves of the black hole candidate Cygnus X-1 by linear and nonlinear time series analysis methods. While a linear model describes the over-all second order properties of the observed data well,…

Given a pair of multivariate time-series data of the same length and dimensions, an approach is proposed to select variables and time intervals where the two series are significantly different. In applications where one time series is an…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-11 Kensuke Mitsuzawa , Margherita Grossi , Stefano Bortoli , Motonobu Kanagawa

Machine learning classification techniques have been used widely to recognize the feasible design domain and discover hidden patterns in engineering design. An accurate classification model needs a large dataset; however, generating a large…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-07-13 Xianping Du , Kai Zhang , Onur Bilgen , Laurent Burlion , Hongyi Xu

Gaussian couplings of partial sum processes are derived for the high-dimensional regime $d=o(n^{1/3})$. The coupling is derived for sums of independent random vectors and subsequently extended to nonstationary time series. Our inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Fabian Mies , Ansgar Steland

High dimensional data analysis is known to be as a challenging problem. In this article, we give a theoretical analysis of high dimensional classification of Gaussian data which relies on a geometrical analysis of the error measure. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-07-10 Robin Girard

The previous decade has brought a remarkable increase of the interest in applications that deal with querying and mining of time series data. Many of the research efforts in this context have focused on introducing new representation…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Xiaoyue Wang , Hui Ding , Goce Trajcevski , Peter Scheuermann , Eamonn Keogh

It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2008-12-02 Pierre Cizeau , Marc Potters , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper derives practical algorithms, based on Bayesian inference methods, for several data analysis problems common in time series analysis of astronomical and other data. One problem is the determination of the lag between two time…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-20 Jeffrey D. Scargle