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The Planck experiment will soon provide a very accurate measurement of Cosmic Microwave Background anisotropies. This will let cosmologists determine most of the cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. Future experiments will…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2010-12-24 Silvia Galli , Matteo Martinelli , Alessandro Melchiorri , Luca Pagano , Blake D. Sherwin , David N. Spergel

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-09-16 Joel Akeret , Alexandre Refregier , Adam Amara , Sebastian Seehars , Caspar Hasner

Measures of discordance between datasets have become an essential part of cosmological analyses. It is important to accurately evaluate the significance of such discordances when present. We propose here a Bayesian interpretation of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-05-12 Weikang Lin , Mustapha Ishak

Primordial features are one of the most important extensions of the Standard Model of cosmology, providing a wealth of information on the primordial universe, ranging from discrimination between inflation and alternative scenarios, new…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-11-15 Xingang Chen , Cora Dvorkin , Zhiqi Huang , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo , Licia Verde

We perform a Fisher matrix analysis to forecast the capability of ongoing and future Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster surveys in constraining the deviations from Gaussian distribution of primordial density perturbations. We use the constraining…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-11 Daisy S. Y. Mak , Elena Pierpaoli

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-11 Abhik Ghosh , Tuhin Majumder , Ayanendranath Basu

A common task in physics and astronomy is studying which of the competing hypotheses the data prefer. This is usually done by computing the Bayes factor between the two hypotheses, and either interpreting it in terms of the posterior odds…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2026-05-12 Ankur Barsode

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2010-12-23 David Parkinson , Andrew R. Liddle

Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2011-12-19 S. Andreon

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-09-19 Gero Walter , Louis J. M. Aslett , Frank P. A. Coolen

Predictive posterior densities (PPDs) are of interest in approximate Bayesian inference. Typically, these are estimated by simple Monte Carlo (MC) averages using samples from the approximate posterior. We observe that the signal-to-noise…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Abhinav Agrawal , Justin Domke

Relativistic and free-streaming particles like neutrinos leave imprints in large scale structures (LSS), providing probes of the effective number of neutrino species $N_{\rm eff}$. In this paper, we use the Fisher formalism to forecast…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-02 Yanlong Shi , Chen Heinrich , Olivier Doré

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become increasingly prominent as a method for conducting parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, most notably those characterized by an intractable likelihood function.…

We investigate the detectability of the primordial CMB polarization B-mode power spectrum on large scales in the presence of instrumental noise and realistic foreground contamination. We have worked out a method to estimate the errors on…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 A. Bonaldi , S. Ricciardi

Accurate predictions of pollutant concentrations at new locations are often of interest in air pollution studies on fine particulate matters (PM$_{2.5}$), in which data is usually not measured at all study locations. PM$_{2.5}$ is also a…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Phuong T. Vu , Timothy V. Larson , Adam A. Szpiro

This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Bayesian component separation techniques have played a central role in the data reduction process of Planck. The most important strength of this approach is its global nature, in which a parametric and physical model is fitted to the data.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-01-01 Ingunn Kathrine Wehus , Hans Kristian Eriksen

There has been growing interest in extending the coverage of ground PM2.5 monitoring networks based on satellite remote sensing data. With broad spatial and temporal coverage, satellite based monitoring network has a strong potential to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-09-14 Yikai Wang , Xuefei Hu , Howard Chang , Lance Waller , Jessica Belle , Yang Liu

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-26 Damon H. T. Cheung , Stefano Rinaldi , Martina Toscani , Otto A. Hannuksela

Gravitational-wave astronomy presents an exciting opportunity to provide an independent measurement of the expansion rate of the Universe. By combining inferences for the binary component masses and luminosity distances from individual…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-12 Charlie Hoy , Konstantin Leyde