English

Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology 2025-09-26 v2 Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics High Energy Physics - Phenomenology

Abstract

Strong lensing of gravitational waves can produce several detectable images as repeated events in the upcoming observing runs, which can be detected with the posterior overlap analysis (Bayes factor). The choice of the binary black hole population plays an important role in the analysis as two gravitational-wave events could be similar either because of lensing or astrophysical coincidence. In this study, we investigate the biases induced by different population models on the Bayes factor. We build up a mock catalog of gravitational-wave events following a benchmark population and reconstruct it using both nonparametric and parametric methods. Using these reconstructions, we compute the Bayes factor for lensed pair events by utilizing both models and compare the results with a benchmark model. We show that the use of a nonparametric population model gives a smaller bias than parametric population models. Therefore, our study demonstrates the importance of choosing a sufficiently agnostic population model for strong lensing analyses.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2308.12182,
  title  = {Mitigating the effect of the population model uncertainty on the strong lensing Bayes factor using nonparametric methods},
  author = {Damon H. T. Cheung and Stefano Rinaldi and Martina Toscani and Otto A. Hannuksela},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.12182},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

16 pages, 8 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-28T12:02:34.825Z