Related papers: North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictabi…
Aggregations of thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), such as air conditioners, offer valuable flexibility to the power grid. The aggregate power consumption of a TCL fleet can be controlled by adjusting thermostat setpoints. An…
Variable density flows occur in a variety of different systems with a wide range of scales, from astrophysics to atmospheric flows to inertial confinement fusion or reacting flows. Given the inherent limitations of RANS simulations, it is…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…
The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and its amplitude on the Euro-Mediterranean summer climate is studied in two climate models, namely CNRM-CM5 and EC-Earth3P. Large ensembles of idealized experiments have been…
Results of direct numerical simulations have been used to show that intensive thermal convection in a horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be described by the distributed chaos approach. The vorticity and helicity dominated distributed…
Linear diffusion processes serve as canonical continuous-time models for dynamic decision-making under uncertainty. These systems evolve according to drift matrices that specify the instantaneous rates of change in the expected system…
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity.…
Non-equilibrium states of a thermodynamic statistical system are investigated using the thermodynamic parameter of the system lifetime, first-passage time, the time before degeneration of the system under influence of fluctuations.…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Atmospheric flows exhibit fluctuations of all scales (space -time) ranging from turbulence (millimeters-seconds) to climate (thousands of kilometers-years). The apparently random fluctuations however exhibit long-range spatio-temporal…
The ocean thermohaline circulation under uncertainty is investigated by a random dynamical systems approach. It is shown that the asymptotic dynamics of the thermohaline circulation is described by a random attractor and by a system with…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
Atmosphere and ocean are coupled via air-sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear.…
This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…
The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
The meltwater mixing line (MML) model provides a theoretical prediction of near-ice water mass properties that is useful to compare with observations. If oceanographic measurements reported in a temperature-salinity diagram overlap with the…