Related papers: North Atlantic thermohaline circulation predictabi…
This work is motivated by a desire to understand transitions between stable equilibria observed in Stommel's 1961 thermohaline circulation model. We adapt the model, including a forcing parameter as a dynamic slow variable. The resulting…
The coupled nature of the ocean-atmosphere system frequently makes understanding the direction of causality difficult in ocean-atmosphere interactions. This study presents a method to decompose turbulent heat fluxes into a component which…
Based on nonlinear prediction and information theory, vertical heterogeneity of predictability and information loss rate was obtained over the Northern Hemisphere. In seasonal to interannual time scales, the predictability is low in lower…
We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
Tropical convective clouds evolve over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, and this makes them difficult to simulate numerically. Here, we propose that their statistical properties can be derived within a simplified…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…
In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…
Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…
Predictive hydrological uncertainty can be quantified by using ensemble methods. If properly formulated, these methods can offer improved predictive performance by combining multiple predictions. In this work, we use 50-year-long monthly…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
Global medium-range weather forecasts suffer occasional failures, often linked to tropical cyclones (TCs). We investigate TC influences on extratropical predictability by comparing forecasts from a physics-based model (ECMWF-IFS) and an…
We propose a new class of univariate nonstationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly-evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing…
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea…
The relatively warm climate found in the North- Western Europe is due to the gulf stream that circulates warm saline water from southern latitudes to Europe. In North Atlantic ocean the stream gives out a large amount of heat, cools down…
Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL), e.g. air-conditioners and heaters, are by far the most wide-spread consumers of electricity. Normally the devices are calibrated to provide the so-called bang-bang control of temperature -- changing…
Air quality is closely related to public health. Health issues such as cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, may have connection with long exposure to highly polluted environment. Therefore, accurate air quality forecasts are…