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Related papers: The Wasserstein cost of Importance Sampling

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The Wasserstein metric is an important measure of distance between probability distributions, with applications in machine learning, statistics, probability theory, and data analysis. This paper provides upper and lower bounds on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-11 Shashank Singh , Barnabás Póczos

This article proposes a method to consistently estimate functionals $\frac1p\sum_{i=1}^pf(\lambda_i(C_1C_2))$ of the eigenvalues of the product of two covariance matrices $C_1,C_2\in\mathbb{R}^{p\times p}$ based on the empirical estimates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-11 Malik Tiomoko , Romain Couillet

We present a novel inference approach that we call Sample Out-of-Sample (or SOS) inference. The approach can be used widely, ranging from semi-supervised learning to stress testing, and it is fundamental in the application of data-driven…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-22 Jose Blanchet , Yang Kang

We consider Bayesian inference by importance sampling when the likelihood is analytically intractable but can be unbiasedly estimated. We refer to this procedure as importance sampling squared (IS2), as we can often estimate the likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-07-26 Minh-Ngoc Tran , Marcel Scharth , Michael K. Pitt , Robert Kohn

Importance sampling (IS) is an efficient stand-in for model refitting in performing (LOO) cross-validation (CV) on a Bayesian model. IS inverts the Bayesian update for a single observation by reweighting posterior samples. The so-called…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Joshua C Chang , Xiangting Li , Tianyi Su , Shixin Xu , Hao-Ren Yao , Julia Porcino , Carson Chow

Wasserstein geometry and information geometry are two important structures to be introduced in a manifold of probability distributions. Wasserstein geometry is defined by using the transportation cost between two distributions, so it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shun-ichi Amari , Takeru Matsuda

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira

In this paper, we establish sharp upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of the empirical measures of point processes under the Wasserstein distance. To this end, we first introduce a new metric on the space of counting measures…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Dongzhou Huang , Tianyi Jiang , Haonan Wang

Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density $\pi(\theta)$. Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable $k$ taking values in a finite subset of $[0,1]$…

Computation · Statistics 2008-11-03 Robert B. Gramacy , Richard J. Samworth , Ruth King

Let $\mu_N$ be the empirical measure associated to a $N$-sample of a given probability distribution $\mu$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We are interested in the rate of convergence of $\mu_N$ to $\mu$, when measured in the Wasserstein distance of…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-10 Nicolas Fournier , Arnaud Guillin

Estimating a $d$-dimensional distribution $\mu$ by the empirical measure $\hat{\mu}_n$ of its samples is an important task in probability theory, statistics and machine learning. It is well known that $\mathbb{E}[\mathcal{W}_p(\hat{\mu}_n,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Martin Larsson , Jonghwa Park , Johannes Wiesel

This paper deals with the problem of quantifying the approximation a probability measure by means of an empirical (in a wide sense) random probability measure, depending on the first n terms of a sequence of random elements. In Section 2,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-23 Emanuele Dolera , Eugenio Regazzini

We study the Wasserstein distance $W_2$ for Gaussian samples. We establish the exact rate of convergence $\sqrt{\log\log n/n}$ of the expected value of the $W_2$ distance between the empirical and true $c.d.f.$'s for the normal…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Philippe Berthet , Jean-Claude Fort

The Wasserstein distance between two probability measures on a metric space is a measure of closeness with applications in statistics, probability, and machine learning. In this work, we consider the fundamental question of how quickly the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Jonathan Weed , Francis Bach

Importance sampling is used to approximate Bayes' rule in many computational approaches to Bayesian inverse problems, data assimilation and machine learning. This paper reviews and further investigates the required sample size for…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-03 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Zijian Wang

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to estimate properties of a distribution. This paper investigates trading-off some bias for variance by adaptively winsorizing the importance sampling estimator. The novel winsorizing…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-10 Paulo Orenstein

Importance Sampling (IS) is a method for approximating expectations under a target distribution using independent samples from a proposal distribution and the associated importance weights. In many applications, the target distribution is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-14 Gabriel Cardoso , Sergey Samsonov , Achille Thin , Eric Moulines , Jimmy Olsson

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Liviu Aolaritei , Bart P. G. Van Parys , Henry Lam , Michael I. Jordan

Considering two random variables with different laws to which we only have access through finite size iid samples, we address how to reweight the first sample so that its empirical distribution converges towards the true law of the second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Julien Reygner , Adrien Touboul

Data represented by probability measures arise as empirical distributions, posterior distributions, and feature-based representations of complex objects. We study heterogeneity in a population of probability measures through the expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Kisung You