Related papers: The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short In…

We deal with a planar random flight $\{(X(t),Y(t)),0<t\leq T\}$ observed at $n+1$ equidistant times $t_i=i\Delta_n,i=0,1,...,n$. The aim of this paper is to estimate the unknown value of the parameter $\lambda$, the underlying rate of the…

Let $M_n$ be the minimal position at generation $n$, of a real-valued branching random walk in the boundary case. As $n \to \infty$, $M_n- {3 \over 2} \log n$ is tight (see [1][9][2]). We establish here a law of iterated logarithm for the…

We consider the parabolic Anderson problem $\partial_t u=\kappa\Delta u+\xi u$ on $(0,\infty)\times \Z^d$ with random i.i.d. potential $\xi=(\xi(z))_{z\in\Z^d}$ and the initial condition $u(0,\cdot)\equiv1$. Our main assumption is that…

In this paper, a simple explanation for the Goldbach Conjecture is given. We have shown that the probability of violating the conjecture not only for the prime numbers, but also for any subset of natural numbers whose distribution is…

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

One of the difficulties in calculating the capacity of certain Poisson channels is that H(lambda), the entropy of the Poisson distribution with mean lambda, is not available in a simple form. In this work we derive upper and lower bounds…

We consider the tail behavior of random variables $R$ which are solutions of the distributional equation $R\stackrel{d}{=}Q+MR$, where $(Q,M)$ is independent of $R$ and $|M|\le 1$. Goldie and Gr\"{u}bel showed that the tails of $R$ are no…

The problem of sums of independent, identically distributed random variables with stretched-exponential tails exhibits a dynamical phase transition and has recently reemerged in the context of active transport and condensation phenomena. We…

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the product tail probability $ \mathbb{P}(\xi_1\cdots\xi_N \geqslant n), $ where $\{\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_N\}$ is a finite collection of independent Poisson random variables with positive…

In this work, we provide a refinement of the selective CLT result of Tian and Taylor (2015), which allows for selective inference in non-parametric settings by adjusting for the asymptotic Gaussian limit for selection. Under some regularity…

Random walks on expanders play a crucial role in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, derandomization, graph theory, and distributed computing. A desirable property is that they are rapidly mixing, which is equivalent to having a spectral…

Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an…

In this paper, we show that a Galton-Watson tree conditioned to have a fixed number of particles in generation $n$ converges in distribution as $n\rightarrow\infty$, and with this tool we study the span and gap statistics of a branching…

A variety of estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution, the approximating distribution for excesses over a high threshold, have been proposed, always assuming the underlying data to be independent. We recently…

The famous Posa conjecture states that every graph of minimum degree at least 2n/3 contains the square of a Hamilton cycle. This has been proved for large n by Koml\'os, Sark\"ozy and Szemer\'edi. Here we prove that if p > n^{-1/2+\eps},…

We prove that for $c>0$ a sufficiently small universal constant that a random set of $c d^2/\log^4(d)$ independent Gaussian random points in $\mathbb{R}^d$ lie on a common ellipsoid with high probability. This nearly establishes a…

We consider a minimal model of one-dimensional discrete-time random walk with step-reinforcement, introduced by Harbola, Kumar, and Lindenberg (2014): The walker can move forward (never backward), or remain at rest. For each $n=1,2,\cdots$,…

Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…

Accurately quantifying tail risks-rare but high-impact events such as financial crashes or extreme weather-is a central challenge in risk management, with serially dependent data. We develop a Bayesian framework based on the Generalized…

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…