Related papers: The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short In…

In [AJM26], we gave large-time asymptotic bounds on the annealed survival probability of a moving polymer taking values in ${\mathbb R}^d, d \geq 1$. This polymer is a solution of a stochastic heat equation driven by additive spacetime…

Given a branching random walk, let $M_n$ be the minimum position of any member of the $n$th generation. We calculate $\mathbf{E}M_n$ to within O(1) and prove exponential tail bounds for $\mathbf{P}\{|M_n-\mathbf{E}M_n|>x\}$, under quite…

We first study a model, introduced recently in \cite{ES}, of a critical branching random walk in an IID random environment on the $d$-dimensional integer lattice. The walker performs critical (0-2) branching at a lattice point if and only…

Sums of independent, bounded random variables concentrate around their expectation approximately as well a Gaussian of the same variance. Well known results of this form include the Bernstein, Hoeffding, and Chernoff inequalities and many…

Let T be a rooted supercritical multi-type Galton-Watson (MGW) tree with types coming from a finite alphabet, conditioned to non-extinction. The lambda-biased random walk (X_t, t>=0) on T is the nearest-neighbor random walk which, when at a…

Let ${Z_n}_{n\ge 0}$ be a random walk with a negative drift and i.i.d. increments with heavy-tailed distribution and let $M=\sup_{n\ge 0}Z_n$ be its supremum. Asmussen & Kl{\"u}ppelberg (1996) considered the behavior of the random walk…

We deal with the distribution of the fractional parts of $p^{\lambda}$, $p$ running over the prime numbers and $\lambda$ being a fixed real number lying in the interval $(0,1)$. Roughly speaking, we study the following question: Given a…

Let $\mathcal{T}$ denote a Galton--Watson tree with offspring distribution $\xi$ satisfying $\mathbb{E}(\xi) = 1$, and let $\mathcal{T}_n$ be the Galton--Watson tree conditioned to have exactly $n$ nodes. We show that, under a mild moment…

Given a fixed graph H, what is the (exponentially small) probability that the number X_H of copies of H in the binomial random graph G_{n,p} is at least twice its mean? Studied intensively since the mid 1990s, this so-called infamous upper…

Given a periodic point $\omega$ in a $\psi$-mixing shift with countable alphabet, the sequence $\{S_{n}\}$ of random variables counting the number of multiple returns to shrinking cylindrical neighborhoods of $\omega$ is considered.…

We consider a stochastic model for the evolution of a discrete population structured by a trait with values on a finite grid of the torus, and with mutation and selection. Traits are vertically inherited unless a mutation occurs, and…

Triangular distributions are a well-known class of distributions that are often used as an elementary example of a probability model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the mode parameter of the triangular distribution over the unit interval…

We establish unconditional $\Omega$-results for all weighted even moments of primes in arithmetic progressions. We also study the moments of these moments and establish lower bounds under GRH. Finally, under GRH and LI we prove an…

In this paper we establish a function field analogue of a conjecture in number theory which is a combination of several famous conjectures, including the Hardy-Littlewood prime tuple conjecture, conjectures on the number of primes in…

Cheek and Johnston (Journal of Mathematical Biology, 2023) consider a continuous-time Bienaym\'e-Galton-Watson tree conditioned on being alive at time $T$. They study the reproduction events along the ancestral lineage of an individual…

We compute the logarithmic asymptotics of the non-existence probability (and more generally the lower-tail probability) for a wide variety of combinatorial problems for a range of parameters in the `critical regime' between the regime…

We address a special case of a conjecture of M. Talagrand relating two notions of "threshold" for an increasing family $\mathcal F$ of subsets of a finite set $V$. The full conjecture implies equivalence of the "Fractional…

We prove that given $\lambda \in \mathbb{R}$ such that $0 < \lambda < 1$, then $\pi(x + x^\lambda) - \pi(x) \sim \displaystyle \frac{x^\lambda}{\log(x)}$. This solves a long-standing problem concerning the existence of primes in short…

In 1922 Hardy and Littlewood proposed a conjecture on the asymptotic density of admissible prime k-tuples. In 2011 Wolf computed the "Skewes number" for twin primes, i.e., the first prime at which a reversal of the Hardy-Littlewood…

We consider a super-critical Galton-Watson tree whose non-degenerate offspring distribution has finite mean. We consider the random trees $\tau$n distributed as $\tau$ conditioned on the n-th generation, Zn, to be of size an $\in$ N. We…