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We investigate the waiting-time distribution of the absolute return in the Korean stock-market index KOSPI. We define the waiting time as a time interval during which the normalized absolute return remains continuously below a threshold…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Jae Woo Lee , Kyoung Eun Lee , Per Arne Rikvold

Cryptocurrencies as a new way of transferring assets and securing financial transactions have gained popularity in recent years. Transactions in cryptocurrencies are publicly available, hence, statistical studies on different aspects of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Amir Pasha Motamed , Behnam Bahrak

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-08 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Dijana Tolic , Matija Piskorec , Zhang Ce , Irena Vodenska

We critically assess recent claims suggesting that upper limits on the time variation of the fine-structure constant tightly constrain the coupling of a dark energy scalar field to the electromagnetic sector, and, indirectly, the violation…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2016-04-20 P. P. Avelino

This work aims to analyse the predictability of price movements of cryptocurrencies on both hourly and daily data observed from January 2017 to January 2021, using deep learning algorithms. For our experiments, we used three sets of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-18 Marco Ortu , Nicola Uras , Claudio Conversano , Giuseppe Destefanis , Silvia Bartolucci

Financial time series have historically been assumed to be a martingale process under the Random Walk hypothesis. Instead of making investment decisions using the raw prices alone, various multimodal pattern matching algorithms have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-21 Minsuk Kim , Byungchul Kim , Junyeong Yong , Jeongwoo Park , Gyeongmin Kim

We study the probabilistic distribution of the confirmation time of Bitcoin transactions, conditional on the current memory pool (i.e., the queue of transactions awaiting confirmation). The results of this paper are particularly interesting…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-10-22 David Koops

Bitcoin provides freshness properties by forming a blockchain where each block is associated with its timestamp and the previous block. Due to these properties, the Bitcoin protocol is being used as a decentralized, trusted, and secure…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-05-21 Pawel Szalachowski

Time series forecasting is a key tool in financial markets, helping to predict asset prices and guide investment decisions. In highly volatile markets, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), forecasting becomes more…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-17 Mabsur Fatin Bin Hossain , Lubna Zahan Lamia , Md Mahmudur Rahman , Md Mosaddek Khan

Accurate forecasting of Bitcoin (BTC) has always been a challenge because decentralized markets are non-linear, highly volatile, and have temporal irregularities. Existing deep learning models often struggle with interpretability and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Raiz Ud Din , Saddam Hussain Khan

The cryptocurrency ecosystem has been the centre of discussion on many social media platforms, following its noted volatility and varied opinions. Twitter is rapidly being utilised as a news source and a medium for bitcoin discussion. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-17 Haritha GB , Sahana N. B

This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular -- as there are about $10,000$ cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most…

General Economics · Economics 2021-07-06 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Bitcoin cryptocurrency has received much attention recently. In the network of Bitcoin, transactions are recorded in a ledger. In this network, the process of recording transactions depends on some nodes called miners that execute a…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2023-02-15 Ali Nikhalat-Jahromi , Ali Mohammad Saghiri , Mohammad Reza Meybodi

We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Olivier Scaillet , Adrien Treccani , Christopher Trevisan

This paper introduces a structural game-theoretic model to value decentralized digital assets like Bitcoin. Instead of relying on speculative beliefs, it frames the asset's price within a Rational-Expectations Security-Utility Nash…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-08-12 Liang Chen

This paper will propose a novel machine learning based portfolio management method in the context of the cryptocurrency market. Previous researchers mainly focus on the prediction of the movement for specific cryptocurrency such as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Zijiang Yang

A widespread security claim of the Bitcoin system, presented in the original Bitcoin white-paper, states that the security of the system is guaranteed as long as there is no attacker in possession of half or more of the total computational…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2013-12-30 Lear Bahack

The blockchain data structure maintained via the longest-chain rule---popularized by Bitcoin---is a powerful algorithmic tool for consensus algorithms. Such algorithms achieve consistency for blocks in the chain as a function of their depth…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Erica Blum , Aggelos Kiayias , Cristopher Moore , Saad Quader , Alexander Russell

Renowned method of log-periodic power law(LPPL) is one of the few ways that a financial market crash could be predicted. Alongside with LPPL, this paper propose a novel method of stock market crash using white box model derived from simple…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-27 HyeonJun Kim

The blocks in the Bitcoin blockchain record the amount of work W that went into creating them through proofs of work. When honest parties control a majority of the work, consensus is achieved by picking the chain with the highest recorded…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-08-05 Mirza Ahad Baig , Christoph U. Günther , Krzysztof Pietrzak