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Bitcoin has become the leading cryptocurrency system, but the limit on its transaction processing capacity has resulted in increased transaction fees and delayed transaction confirmation. As such, it is pertinent to understand and probably…
This study investigates the transmission of monetary policy narratives to Bitcoin prices, distinguishing the impact of ex-ante expectations from ex-post interest rate implementation. We introduce a high-frequency Monetary Policy…
A main focus in economics research is understanding the time series of prices of goods and assets. While statistical models using only the properties of the time series itself have been successful in many aspects, we expect to gain a better…
Bitcoin is currently subject to a significant pay-for-speed trade-off. This is caused by lengthy and highly variable transaction confirmation times, especially during times of congestion. Users can reduce their transaction confirmation…
We survey recent results on the mathematical stability of Bitcoin protocol. Profitability and probability of a double spend are estimated in closed form with classical special functions. The stability of Bitcoin mining rules is analyzed and…
In recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Among them, the most widespread is Bitcoin. Given its novelty, this paper investigates some statistical properties of the Bitcoin market. This…
Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto…
This letter revisits the informational efficiency of the Bitcoin market. In particular we analyze the time-varying behavior of long memory of returns on Bitcoin and volatility 2011 until 2017, using the Hurst exponent. Our results are…
Proof-of-work blockchains reward each miner for one completed block by an amount that is, in expectation, proportional to the number of hashes the miner contributed to the mining of the block. Is this proportional allocation rule optimal?…
Although Bitcoin was intended to be a decentralized digital currency, in practice, mining power is quite concentrated. This fact is a persistent source of concern for the Bitcoin community. We provide an explanation using a simple model to…
A hard-fork reconfiguration of the peer to peer Bitcoin network is described that substitutes tamper-evident logs and proof-of-stake consensus for proof-of-work consensus. The block creation rewards and transaction fees are reallocated to…
We empirically examine the intraday return- and volatility-forecasting power of on-chain flow data for Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), and Tether(USDT). We find ETH net inflows to strongly predict ETH returns and volatility in the 2017-2023…
Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in…
Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, are one of the most controversial and complex technological innovations in today's financial system. This study aims to forecast the movements of Bitcoin prices at a high degree of accuracy. To this aim,…
Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions…
In this work, we propose to apply a new model fusion and learning paradigm, known as Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), to the field of Bitcoin price prediction. Price prediction of financial product has always been a big topic in…
In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Block Chain" creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computers central processing unit (CPU). Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting…
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer cryptographic currency system. Since its introduction in 2008, Bitcoin has gained noticeable popularity, mostly due to its following properties: (1) the transaction fees are very low, and (2) it is not controlled…
In light of micro-scale inefficiencies induced by the high degree of fragmentation of the Bitcoin trading landscape, we utilize a granular data set comprised of orderbook and trades data from the most liquid Bitcoin markets, in order to…
We construct and study the Google matrix of Bitcoin transactions during the time period from the very beginning in 2009 till April 2013. The Bitcoin network has up to a few millions of bitcoin users and we present its main characteristics…