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Digitalisation transforms money from distinguishable physical objects into fungible informational units. A recent theoretical framework predicts that such indistinguishable wealth obeys bosonic occupancy statistics, leading to geometric…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-14 Chanhee Park , Claudio J. Tessone , Yu Zhang , Jeong-Hyuck Park

We report on the use of sentiment analysis on news and social media to analyze and predict the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the leading cryptocurrency and has the highest market capitalization among digital currencies. Predicting Bitcoin…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-02-04 Pratikkumar Prajapati

Several emerging PoW blockchain protocols rely on a "parallel-chain" architecture for scaling, where instead of a single chain, multiple chains are run in parallel and aggregated. A key requirement of practical PoW blockchains is to adapt…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Xuechao Wang , Viswa Virinchi Muppirala , Lei Yang , Sreeram Kannan , Pramod Viswanath

Bitcoin's design promises resilience through decentralization, yet the physical infrastructure supporting the network creates hidden dependencies. We present the first longitudinal study of Bitcoin's resilience to submarine cable failures,…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Wenbin Wu , Alexander Neumueller

We analyze the first and second moment risk premia in the Bitcoin market based on options and realized returns and contrast them to the premia embedded in the main US stock index market. First, Bitcoin is much more volatile and has a higher…

General Economics · Economics 2025-08-04 Caio Almeida , Maria Grith , Ratmir Miftachov , Zijin Wang

This paper conducts an extensive analysis of Bitcoin return series, with a primary focus on three volatility metrics: historical volatility (calculated as the sample standard deviation), forecasted volatility (derived from GARCH-type…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-05 Cristina Chinazzo , Vahidin Jeleskovic

Bitcoin is a digital financial asset that is devoid of a central authority. This makes it distinct from traditional financial assets in a number of ways. For instance, the total number of tokens is limited and it has not explicit use value.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-20 C. R. da Cunha , R. da Silva

Much significant research has been done to investigate various facets of the link between Bitcoin price and its fundamental sources. This study goes beyond by looking into least to most influential factors-across the fundamental,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-06 Jamal Bouoiyour , Refk Selmi

Our study empirically predicts the bubble of non-fungible tokens (NFTs): transferable and unique digital assets on public blockchains. This topic is important because, despite their strong market growth in 2021, NFTs on a project basis have…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-17 Kensuke Ito , Kyohei Shibano , Gento Mogi

The third Bitcoin halving that took place in May 2020 cut down the mining reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block and thus slowed down the rate of issuance of new Bitcoins, making it more scarce. The fourth and most recent halving happened…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-11 Vladislav Virtonen

This paper describes an architecture for predicting the price of cryptocurrencies for the next seven days using the Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Historical data of cryptocurrencies and indexes that are considered…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-06 Ali Mehrban , Pegah Ahadian

We assess the applicability of rough volatility models to Bitcoin realized volatility using the normalised p-variation framework of Cont and Das (2024). Applying this model-free estimator to high-frequency Bitcoin data from 2017 to 2024…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-30 Milan Pontiggia

Cryptocurrencies are considered the latest innovation in finance with considerable impact across social, technological, and economic dimensions. This new class of financial assets has also motivated a myriad of scientific investigations…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-03-31 Arthur A. B. Pessa , Matjaz Perc , Haroldo V. Ribeiro

This paper examines factors that influence prices of most common five cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litecoin, and Monero over 2010-2018 using weekly data. The study employs ARDL technique and documents several findings.…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-01 Yhlas Sovbetov

Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial instruments with more and more new retail investors joining the scene with each passing day. Bitcoin has always proved to determine in which way the rest of the cryptocurrency market is headed…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Rahul Arulkumaran , Suyash Kumar , Shikha Tomar , Manideep Gongalla , Harshitha

The year 2024 witnessed a major development in the cryptocurrency industry with the long-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This innovation provides investors with a new, regulated path to gain exposure to…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2024-09-04 Di Wu

In this paper, we study the ability to make the short-term prediction of the exchange price fluctuations towards the United States dollar for the Bitcoin market. We use the data of realized volatility collected from one of the largest…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-08 Tian Guo , Albert Bifet , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

We present positive evidence of price stability of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. For the sample years from 2016 to 2020, the prices of major cryptocurrencies are found to be stable, relative to major financial assets.…

General Economics · Economics 2021-12-14 Tatsuru Kikuchi , Toranosuke Onishi , Kenichi Ueda

Forecasting cryptocurrencies as a financial issue is crucial as it provides investors with possible financial benefits. A small improvement in forecasting performance can lead to increased profitability; therefore, obtaining a realistic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-01 Hulusi Mehmet Tanrikulu , Hakan Pabuccu

This paper compares and contrasts stationarity between the conventional stock market and cryptocurrency. The dataset used for the analysis is the intraday price indices of the S&P500 from 1996 to 2023 and the intraday Bitcoin indices from…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-08-07 Yaoyue Tang , Karina Arias-Calluari , Michael S. Harré