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In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If…

Applications · Statistics 2014-06-02 Daniele Durante , Bruno Scarpa , David B. Dunson

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Thomas Nagler , Tobias Brock , Nicolai Palm

Modularity is a very widely used measure of the level of clustering or community structure in networks. Here we consider a recent generalisation of the definition of modularity to temporal graphs, whose edge-sets change over discrete…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-07-24 Vilhelm Agdur , Jessica Enright , Laura Larios-Jones , Kitty Meeks , Fiona Skerman , Ella Yates

Measuring the topological overlap of two graphs becomes important when assessing the changes between temporally adjacent graphs in a time-evolving network. Current methods depend on the fraction of nodes that have persisting edges. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-03-06 Fiona Pigott , Mauricio Rene Herrera Marin

A novel numerical method for the estimation of large time-varying parameter (TVP) models is proposed. The updating and smoothing estimates of the TVP model are derived within the context of generalised linear least squares and through…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-23 Stella Hadjiantoni , Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes

We are interested in modeling networks in which the connectivity among the nodes and node attributes are random variables and interact with each other. We propose a probabilistic model that allows one to formulate jointly a probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Haiyan Cai

The growing success of graph signal processing (GSP) approaches relies heavily on prior identification of a graph over which network data admit certain regularity. However, adaptation to increasingly dynamic environments as well as demands…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Seyed Saman Saboksayr , Gonzalo Mateos , Mujdat Cetin

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians plays a pivotal role for embodied intelligent applications. The inherent indeterminacy of human behavior and complex social interaction among a rich variety of agents make…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Huajian Liu , Wei Dong , Kunpeng Fan , Chao Wang , Yongzhuo Gao

Penalized spline smoothing of time series and its asymptotic properties are studied. A data-driven algorithm for selecting the smoothing parameter is developed. The proposal is applied to define a semiparametric extension of the well-known…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-26 Yuanhua Feng , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We consider parameter estimation, hypothesis testing and variable selection for partially time-varying coefficient models. Our asymptotic theory has the useful feature that it can allow dependent, nonstationary error and covariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-20 Ting Zhang , Wei Biao Wu

This paper is devoted to the estimation of the Lipschitz constant of general neural network architectures using semidefinite programming. For this purpose, we interpret neural networks as time-varying dynamical systems, where the $k$-th…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-26 Patricia Pauli , Dennis Gramlich , Frank Allgöwer

One of the major issues in signed networks is to use network structure to predict the missing sign of an edge. In this paper, we introduce a novel probabilistic approach for the sign prediction problem. The main characteristic of the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-02-20 Amin Javari , HongXiang Qiu , Elham Barzegaran , Mahdi Jalili , Kevin Chen-Chuan Chang

The paper investigates the problem of estimating the state of a time-varying system with a linear measurement model; in particular, the paper considers the case where the number of measurements available can be smaller than the number of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-07 Guido Cavraro , Emiliano Dall'Anese , Joshua Comden , Andrey Bernstein

Spatiotemporal graph neural networks have shown to be effective in time series forecasting applications, achieving better performance than standard univariate predictors in several settings. These architectures take advantage of a graph…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-13 Andrea Cini , Ivan Marisca , Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

In the standard stochastic block model for networks, the probability of a connection between two nodes, often referred to as the edge probability, depends on the unobserved communities each of these nodes belongs to. We consider a flexible…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Yuichi Kitamura , Louise Laage

In this paper we propose a framework to analyze iterative first-order optimization algorithms for time-varying convex optimization. We assume that the temporal variability is caused by a time-varying parameter entering the objective, which…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Fabian Jakob , Andrea Iannelli

We introduce a general framework for leveraging graph stream data for temporal prediction-based applications. Our proposed framework includes novel methods for learning an appropriate graph time-series representation, modeling and weighting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Di Jin , Sungchul Kim , Ryan A. Rossi , Danai Koutra

We investigate stochastic averaging theory for locally Lipschitz discrete-time nonlinear systems with stochastic perturbation and its applications to convergence analysis of discrete-time stochastic extremum seeking algorithms. Firstly, by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-02-18 Shu-Jun Liu , Miroslav Krstic

This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-28 Huiling Yuan , Guodong Li , Junhui Wang

We study the problem of modeling multiple symmetric, weighted networks defined on a common set of nodes, where networks arise from different groups or conditions. We propose a model in which each network is expressed as the sum of a shared…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Hao Yan , Keith Levin