English
Related papers

Related papers: LLMs Uncertainty Quantification via Adaptive Confo…

200 papers

Detecting whether an LLM hallucinates is an important research challenge. One promising way of doing so is to estimate the semantic entropy (Farquhar et al., 2024) of the distribution of generated sequences. We propose a new algorithm for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Kamil Ciosek , Nicolò Felicioni , Sina Ghiassian

Uncertainty estimation in multi-LLM systems remains largely single-model-centric: existing methods quantify uncertainty within each model but do not adequately capture semantic disagreement across models. To address this gap, we propose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Kangkang Sun , Jun Wu , Jianhua Li , Minyi Guo , Xiuzhen Che , Jianwei Huang

Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) improves correctness of Question Answering (QA) and addresses hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), yet greatly increase computational costs. Besides, RAG is not always needed as may introduce…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in natural language generation (NLG) tasks remains an open challenge, exacerbated by the closed-source nature of the latest large language models (LLMs). This study investigates applying conformal prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhiyuan Wang , Jinhao Duan , Lu Cheng , Yue Zhang , Qingni Wang , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu , Hengtao Shen , Xiaofeng Zhu

Accurate confidence estimation is essential for trustworthy large language models (LLMs) systems, as it empowers the user to determine when to trust outputs and enables reliable deployment in safety-critical applications. Current confidence…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Mingruo Yuan , Shuyi Zhang , Ben Kao

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks. However, the truthfulness of their outputs is not guaranteed, and their tendency toward overconfidence further limits reliability. Uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Qi Cao , Andrew Gambardella , Takeshi Kojima , Yutaka Matsuo , Yusuke Iwasawa

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable fluency and competence across various natural language tasks. However, recent research has highlighted their sensitivity to variations in input prompts. To deploy LLMs in a safe and reliable…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-30 Harsh Raj , Vipul Gupta , Domenic Rosati , Subhabrata Majumdar

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) is challenged by hallucinations, critical failure modes where models generate non-factual, nonsensical or unfaithful text. This paper introduces Semantic Divergence Metrics (SDM), a novel…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Igor Halperin

Uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying reasoning language models, yet remains poorly understood under extended chain-of-thought reasoning. We study parallel sampling as a fully black-box approach using verbalized confidence and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Maksym Del , Markus Kängsepp , Marharyta Domnich , Ardi Tampuu , Lisa Yankovskaya , Meelis Kull , Mark Fishel

Hallucinations are a common issue that undermine the reliability of large language models (LLMs). Recent studies have identified a specific subset of hallucinations, known as confabulations, which arise due to predictive uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Mykyta Ielanskyi , Kajetan Schweighofer , Lukas Aichberger , Sepp Hochreiter

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Rileigh Bandy , Enrico Camporeale , Andong Hu , Thomas Berger , Rebecca Morrison

Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) have recently demonstrated significant improvements in complex reasoning. While quantifying generation uncertainty in LRMs is crucial, traditional methods are often insufficient because they do not provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Yangyi Li , Chenxu Zhao , Mengdi Huai

Accurately estimating semantic aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in large language models (LLMs) is particularly challenging in free-form question answering (QA), where obtaining stable estimates often requires many expensive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-26 Ji Won Park , Kyunghyun Cho

Large language models (LLMs) often generate fluent but factually incorrect outputs, known as hallucinations, which undermine their reliability in real-world applications. While uncertainty estimation has emerged as a promising strategy for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin

Large Language Models (LLMs) are valued for their strong performance across various tasks, but they also produce inaccurate or misleading outputs. Uncertainty Estimation (UE) quantifies the model's confidence and helps users assess response…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-06-11 Heydar Soudani , Evangelos Kanoulas , Faegheh Hasibi

Reliable uncertainty estimation is critical for deploying neural networks (NNs) in real-world applications. While existing calibration techniques often rely on post-hoc adjustments or coarse-grained binning methods, they remain limited in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Pedro Mendes , Paolo Romano , David Garlan

Large language models have shown impressive capabilities in code generation, yet they often produce functionally incorrect code. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Dylan Bouchard , Mohit Singh Chauhan , Zeya Ahmad , Ho-Kyeong Ra

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive fluency, but often produce critical errors known as "hallucinations". Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are a promising tool for coping with this fundamental shortcoming. Yet, existing…

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes applications, robust uncertainty estimation is essential for ensuring the safe and trustworthy deployment of LLMs. We present the most comprehensive study to date of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Philip Torr , Chang Xu

Prompt optimization algorithms for Large Language Models (LLMs) excel in multi-step reasoning but still lack effective uncertainty estimation. This paper introduces a benchmark dataset to evaluate uncertainty metrics, focusing on Answer,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Pei-Fu Guo , Yun-Da Tsai , Shou-De Lin