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We introduce a method to measure uncertainty in large language models. For tasks like question answering, it is essential to know when we can trust the natural language outputs of foundation models. We show that measuring uncertainty in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Lorenz Kuhn , Yarin Gal , Sebastian Farquhar

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Leading uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Lukas Aichberger , Kajetan Schweighofer , Sepp Hochreiter

Minimizing prediction uncertainty on unlabeled data is a key factor to achieve good performance in semi-supervised learning (SSL). The prediction uncertainty is typically expressed as the \emph{entropy} computed by the transformed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Jing Li , Yuangang Pan , Ivor W. Tsang

Uncertainty decomposition refers to the task of decomposing the total uncertainty of a predictive model into aleatoric (data) uncertainty, resulting from inherent randomness in the data-generating process, and epistemic (model) uncertainty,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Bairu Hou , Yujian Liu , Kaizhi Qian , Jacob Andreas , Shiyu Chang , Yang Zhang

Reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) should abstain when confidence is insufficient. However, prior studies often treat refusal as a generic "I don't know'', failing to distinguish input-level ambiguity (data uncertainty) from capability…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Jingyi Ren , Ante Wang , Yunghwei Lai , Xiaolong Wang , Linlu Gong , Weitao Li , Weizhi Ma , Yang Liu

Pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have recently shown promise in detecting anomalies. However, previous approaches are fundamentally limited by their reliance on human-designed prompts and the lack of accessible anomaly samples,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Pi-Wei Chen , Jerry Chun-Wei Lin , Wei-Han Chen , Jia Ji , Zih-Ching Chen , Feng-Hao Yeh , Chao-Chun Chen

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Roman Vashurin , Maiya Goloburda , Albina Ilina , Aleksandr Rubashevskii , Preslav Nakov , Artem Shelmanov , Maxim Panov

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning abilities, enabling robots to understand natural language instructions and generate high-level plans with appropriate grounding. However, LLM hallucinations present a significant…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Shiyuan Yin , Chenjia Bai , Zihao Zhang , Junwei Jin , Xinxin Zhang , Chi Zhang , Xuelong Li

Self-consistency (SC) is a widely used test-time inference technique for improving performance in chain-of-thought reasoning. It involves generating multiple responses, or samples from a large language model (LLM) and selecting the most…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Austin Feng , Marius Alonso , Ambroise Odonnat

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to hallucinate and generate non-factual outputs which can undermine user trust. Traditional methods to directly mitigate hallucinations, such as representation editing and contrastive decoding, often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Prasenjit Dey , Srujana Merugu , Sivaramakrishnan Kaveri

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been transformative across many domains. However, hallucination, i.e., confidently outputting incorrect information, remains one of the leading challenges for LLMs. This raises the question of how to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Toghrul Abbasli , Kentaroh Toyoda , Yuan Wang , Leon Witt , Muhammad Asif Ali , Yukai Miao , Dan Li , Qingsong Wei

Despite the massive advancements in large language models (LLMs), they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Yongjin Yang , Haneul Yoo , Hwaran Lee

In this paper, we present a framework for online parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in the context of adaptive safety-critical control. The key insight enabling our approach is that the parameter estimate generated by the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-14 Max H. Cohen , Makai Mann , Kevin Leahy , Calin Belta

Reward models (RMs) are essential for aligning large language models (LLM) with human expectations. However, existing RMs struggle to capture the stochastic and uncertain nature of human preferences and fail to assess the reliability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Xingzhou Lou , Dong Yan , Wei Shen , Yuzi Yan , Jian Xie , Junge Zhang

Evaluating LLMs and text-to-image models is a computationally intensive task often overlooked. Efficient evaluation is crucial for understanding the diverse capabilities of these models and enabling comparisons across a growing number of…

We present ACCORD, a framework and benchmark suite for disentangling the commonsense grounding and reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs) through controlled, multi-hop counterfactuals. ACCORD introduces formal elements to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-02-10 François Roewer-Després , Jinyue Feng , Zining Zhu , Frank Rudzicz

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models, and prior research has demonstrated improvements in the calibration of modern language models (LMs). We study in-context learning (ICL), a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-29 Hanlin Zhang , Yi-Fan Zhang , Yaodong Yu , Dhruv Madeka , Dean Foster , Eric Xing , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sham Kakade

We study the problem of optimizing Large Language Model (LLM) inference scheduling to minimize total latency. LLM inference is an online and multi-task service process and also heavily energy consuming by which a pre-trained LLM processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Zixi Chen , Yinyu Ye , Zijie Zhou

This study investigates uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs) for medical applications, emphasizing both technical innovations and philosophical implications. As LLMs become integral to clinical decision-making,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-08 Zahra Atf , Seyed Amir Ahmad Safavi-Naini , Peter R. Lewis , Aref Mahjoubfar , Nariman Naderi , Thomas R. Savage , Ali Soroush

Large Language Models (LLMs) display formidable capabilities in generative tasks but also pose potential risks due to their tendency to generate hallucinatory responses. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), the evaluation of model output…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-11 Qinhong Lin , Linna Zhou , Zhongliang Yang , Yuang Cai
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