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Recently, continuum Microkinetic Rate Theory (cMRT) has been advanced as a method of studying rates of systems, where deviations between observation and cMRT theory have been found, and it hypothesized that these deviations are linked…

We consider linear two-time-scale stochastic approximation algorithms driven by martingale noise. Recent applications in machine learning motivate the need to understand finite-time error rates, but conventional stochastic approximation…

We consider Betti numbers of the excursion of a smooth Euclidean Gaussian field restricted to a rectangular window, in the asymptotics where the window grows to R^d . With motivations coming from Topological Data Analysis, we derive a…

We derive a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the conditional characteristic function of the increment of an It\^o semimartingale over a shrinking time interval. The spot characteristics of the It\^o semimartingale are allowed to have…

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the Gaussian quasi maximum likelihood estimator of a stationary GARCH process with heavy-tailed innovations. This means that the innovations are regularly varying with index…

It is known that the fluctuations of suitable linear statistics of Haar distributed elements of the compact classical groups satisfy a central limit theorem. We show that if the corresponding test functions are sufficiently smooth, a rate…

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are usually used to measure risks of stochastic systems, which are often estimated by Monte Carlo methods. This paper focuses on the use of quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method, whose convergence rate is…

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is one of the most fundamental results in statistics. It states that the standardized sample mean of a sequence of $n$ mutually independent and identically distributed random variables with finite first and…

The approximation of integral type functionals is studied for discrete observations of a continuous It\^o semimartingale. Based on novel approximations in the Fourier domain, central limit theorems are proved for $L^2$-Sobolev functions…

We consider a multidimensional It\^o process $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$ with some unknown drift coefficient process $b_t$ and volatility coefficient $\sigma(X_t,\theta)$ with covariate process $X=(X_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$, the function…

We show that repulsive random variables can yield Monte Carlo methods with faster convergence rates than the typical $N^{-1/2}$, where $N$ is the number of integrand evaluations. More precisely, we propose stochastic numerical quadratures…

The martingale expansion provides a refined approximation to the marginal distributions of martingales beyond the normal approximation implied by the martingale central limit theorem. We develop a martingale expansion framework specifically…

We consider quantile estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo and establish conditions under which the sampling distribution of the Monte Carlo error is approximately Normal. Further, we investigate techniques to estimate the associated…

We established the rate of convergence in the central limit theorem for stopped sums of a class of martingale difference sequences.

Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence,…

Jumps and market microstructure noise are stylized features of high-frequency financial data. It is well known that they introduce bias in the estimation of volatility (including integrated and spot volatilities) of assets, and many methods…

This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…

In this paper, we are concerned with nonparametric inference on the volatility of volatility process in stochastic volatility models. We construct several estimators for its integrated version in a high-frequency setting, all based on…

For a generalization of Johnstone's spiked model, a covariance matrix with eigenvalues all one but $M$ of them, the number of features $N$ comparable to the number of samples $n: N=N(n), M=M(n), \gamma^{-1} \leq \frac{N}{n} \leq \gamma$…

In this paper, we give rates of convergence, for minimal distances and for the uniform distance, between the law of partial sums of martingale differences and thelimiting Gaussian distribution. More precisely, denoting by $P_{X}$ the law of…