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Earth system models inform water policy and interventions, but knowledge gaps in hydrologic representations limit the credibility of projections and impacts assessments. The literature does not provide conclusive evidence that incorporating…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 Puja Das , Auroop R. Ganguly

Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Antoine Blanchard , Nishant Parashar , Boyko Dodov , Christian Lessig , Themistoklis Sapsis

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-21 Won Chang , Michael L. Stein , Jiali Wang , V. Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-10-11 Valerio Lucarini , Sandro Calmanti , Alessandro Dell'Aquila , Paolo M. Ruti , Antonio Speranza

Effective water resource management depends on accurate projections of flows in water channels. For projected climate data, use of different General Circulation Models (GCM) simulates contrasting results. This study shows selection of GCM…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-16 Saad Ahmed Jamal , Ammara Nusrat , Muhammad Azmat , Muhammad Osama Nusrat

Robustly modeling the inner edge of the habitable zone is essential for determining the most promising potentially habitable exoplanets for atmospheric characterization. Global climate models (GCMs) have become the standard tool for…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-25 Jun Yang , Jeremy Leconte , Eric T. Wolf , Timonthy Merlis , Daniel D. B. Koll , Francois Forget , Dorian S. Abbot

Detailed investigations of time series features across climates, continents and variable types can progress our understanding and modelling ability of the Earth's hydroclimate and its dynamics. They can also improve our comprehension of the…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-23 Georgia Papacharalampous , Hristos Tyralis , Yannis Markonis , Petr Maca , Martin Hanel

Persistent systematic errors in Earth system models (ESMs) arise from difficulties in representing the full diversity of subgrid, multiscale atmospheric convection and turbulence. Machine learning (ML) parameterizations trained on short…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-18 Helge Heuer , Tom Beucler , Mierk Schwabe , Julien Savre , Manuel Schlund , Veronika Eyring

When Austrian hydropower production plummeted by 44% in early 2025 due to reduced snowpack, it exposed a critical vulnerability: standard meteorological and climatological datasets systematically fail in mountain regions that hold untapped…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-11 Irene Schicker , Marianne Bügelmayer-Blaschek , Annemarie Lexer , Katharina Baier , Kristofer Hasel , Paolo Gazzaneo

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are numerical models that simulate complex physical processes within the Earth's climate system and are essential for understanding and predicting climate change. However, GCMs suffer from systemic biases due to…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-23 Reetam Majumder , Shiqi Fang , A. Sankarasubramanian , Emily C. Hector , Brian J. Reich

To track rapid changes within our water sector, Global Water Models (GWMs) need to realistically represent hydrologic systems' response patterns - such as baseflow fraction - but are hindered by their limited ability to learn from data.…

If climate stationarity is dead, how should engineering design standards be modified to account for potential changes in extreme precipitation? Many standards rely on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves provided in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-06-13 Jonathan B. Butcher , Tan Zi

The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed…

This study presents a comprehensive climatological benchmarking of tropical cyclones (TCs) generated by AI-based global weather prediction models. Using all TC events from the North Atlantic and Western Pacific basins between 2020 and 2025,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-01 Yanmo Weng , Avantika Gori

Traditional approaches for comparing global climate models and observational data products typically fail to account for the geographic location of the underlying weather station data. For modern high-resolution models, this is an oversight…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-03 Mark D. Risser , Michael F. Wehner

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Wuqiushi Yao , Or Hadas , Yohai Kaspi

Accurate medium-range precipitation forecasting is crucial for hydrometeorological risk management and disaster mitigation, yet remains challenging for current numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. Traditional ensemble systems such as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Tianyi Xiong , Haonan Chen

We characterise the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) in ten redshift bins in the redshift range $2 \leq z \leq 4$ with a sample of 103 high resolution, high S/N Ly$\alpha$ forest spectra using four different flux distribution…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-07-20 Prakash Gaikwad , Raghunathan Srianand , Martin G. Haehnelt , Tirthankar Roy Choudhury

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of the CMIP6 global circulation models (GCMs) varies from 1.83 {\deg}C to 5.67 {\deg}C. Herein, 38 GCMs are grouped into three ECS classes (low, 1.80-3.00 {\deg}C; medium, 3.01-4.50 {\deg}C; high,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-30 Nicola Scafetta

Climate change affects ocean temperature, salinity and sea level, impacting monsoons and ocean productivity. Future projections by Global Climate Models based on shared socioeconomic pathways from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-01-09 Abhishek Pasula , Deepak N. Subramani