Related papers: Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and …
Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…
The dynamic activity of the Sun, governed by its cycle of sunspots -- strongly magnetized regions that are observed on its surface -- modulate our solar system space environment creating space weather. Severe space weather leads to…
Despite the known general properties of the solar cycles, a reliable forecast of the 11-year sunspot number variations is still a problem. The difficulties are caused by the apparent chaotic behavior of the sunspot numbers from cycle to…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
The magnetic cycle of the Sun, as manifested in the cyclic appearance of sunspots, significantly influences our space environment and space-based technologies by generating what is now termed as space weather. Long-term variation in the…
The polar magnetic field of the Sun is a manifestation of certain aspects of the dynamo process and is a good precursor for predicting a sunspot cycle before its onset. Although actual synoptic measurements of this field exist only from the…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
The Sun's surface field, especially the polar field, sets the boundary condition for the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields, but also provides us insight into the dynamo process. The evolution of the polar fields results from the…
This article reviews some of the leading results obtained in solar dynamo physics by using temporal oscillator models as a tool to interpret observational data and dynamo model predictions. We discuss how solar observational data such as…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most…
Sunspot numbers form a comprehensive, long-duration proxy of solar activity and have been used numerous times to empirically investigate the properties of the solar cycle. A number of correlations have been discovered over the 24 cycles for…
The solar magnetic activity cycle is responsible for periodic episodes of severe space weather, which can perturb satellite orbits, interfere with communications systems, and bring down power grids. Much progress has recently been made in…
Building a reliable forecast of solar activity is a long-standing problem that requires to accurately describe past and current global dynamics. However, synoptic observations of magnetic fields and subsurface flows became available…
Solar cycles are studied with the Version 2 monthly smoothed international sunspot number, the variations of which are found to be well represented by the modified logistic differential equation with four parameters: maximum cumulative…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the…
The choice of free parameters in surface flux transport (SFT) models describing the evolution of the large-scale poloidal magnetic field of the Sun is critical for the correct reproduction of the polar magnetic flux built up during a solar…
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well…
The polar precursor method is widely considered to be the most robust physically motivated method to predict the amplitude of an upcoming solar cycle.It uses indicators of the magnetic field concentrated near the poles around sunspot…