Related papers: Solar Cycle Prediction: Challenges, Progress, and …
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
Solar cycle activity forecasting, mainly its magnitude and timing, is an essential issue for numerous scientific and technological applications: in fact, during an active solar period, many strong eruptions occur on the Sun with increasing…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…
The polar field reversal is a crucial process in the cyclic evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun.Various important characteristics of a solar cycle, such as its duration and strength, and also the cycle predictability, are…
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…
Solar polar fields are essential for the solar cycle and the heliospheric magnetic field. Cycle 25 is now entering its declining phase, the critical period during which most of the cycle's polar fields are established. Therefore, reliable…
Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…
Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…