Related papers: The realized copula of volatility
Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…
In this article we study the asymptotic behaviour of the realized quadratic variation of a process $\int_{0}^{t}u_{s}dG^{H}_{s}$, where $u$ is a $\beta$-H\"older continuous process with $\beta >1-H$ and $G^H$ is a self-similar Gaussian…
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based…
In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in [1], which addressed…
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…
Dependence strucuture estimation is one of the important problems in machine learning domain and has many applications in different scientific areas. In this paper, a theoretical framework for such estimation based on copula and copula…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
In this paper, we study stochastic volatility models in regimes where the maturity is small, but large compared to the mean-reversion time of the stochastic volatility factor. The problem falls in the class of averaging/homogenization…
We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test for regular vine (R-vine) copula models, a flexible class of multivariate copulas based on a pair-copula construction (PCC). The test arises from the information matrix ratio. The corresponding test…
Conformal inference is a versatile tool for building prediction sets in regression or classification. We study the false coverage proportion (FCP) in a simultaneous inference setting with a calibration sample of $n$ points and a test sample…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of…
Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…
Dependence modeling of multivariate count data has garnered significant attention in recent years. Multivariate elliptical copulas are typically preferred in statistical literature to analyze dependence between repeated measurements of…
We propose a novel distributional regression model for a multivariate response vector based on a copula process over the covariate space. It uses the implicit copula of a Gaussian multivariate regression, which we call a ``regression…
We consider noisy non-synchronous discrete observations of a continuous semimartingale with random volatility. Functional stable central limit theorems are established under high-frequency asymptotics in three setups: one-dimensional for…
We study the dynamics of the normal implied volatility in a local volatility model, using a small-time expansion in powers of maturity T. At leading order in this expansion, the asymptotics of the normal implied volatility is similar, up to…
The proposed Goodness--of--Fit (GoF) test for checking the linear autocorrelation model in a functional time series is based on an empirical process, whose residual marks and covariate index set are in a separable Hilbert space \mathbb{H}.…
This paper deals with a situation when one is interested in the dependence structure of a multidimensional response variable in the presence of a multivariate covariate. It is assumed that the covariate affects only the marginal…
This paper introduces an econometric framework for analyzing cross-sectional dependence in the idiosyncratic volatilities of assets using high frequency data. We first consider the estimation of standard measures of dependence in the…