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We study the approximation of a Markov chain on a reduced state space, for both discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. In this context, we extend the existing theory of formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-12 Fabian Michel , Markus Siegle

We consider the joint estimation of change point locations and the sparsity pattern of the variance covariance matrix, which is assumed to evolve in a piecewise constant manner. By applying Group Fused LASSO and LASSO penalties to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Ying Lin , Benjamin Poignard

In some cases, computational benefit can be gained by exploring the hyper parameter space using a deterministic set of grid points instead of a Markov chain. We view this as a numerical integration problem and make three unique…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-30 Chaitanya Joshi , Paul T. Brown , Stephen Joe

Bayesian inference for exponential family random graph models (ERGMs) is a doubly-intractable problem because of the intractability of both the likelihood and posterior normalizing factor. Auxiliary variable based Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-15 Fan Yin , Carter T. Butts

The generalized Langevin equation (GLE) is a universal model for particle velocity in a viscoelastic medium. In this paper, we consider the GLE family with fractional memory kernels. We show that, in the critical regime where the memory…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-10 Gustavo Didier , Hung D. Nguyen

We show how the essential spectral radius of a bounded positive kernel, acting on bounded functions, is linked to its lower approximation by certain absolutely continuous kernels. The standart Doeblin's condition can be interpreted in this…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hubert Hennion

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-02 Marcus M. Noack , Hengrui Luo , Mark D. Risser

In this paper, we introduce an adaptive kernel method for solving the optimal filtering problem. The computational framework that we adopt is the Bayesian filter, in which we recursively generate an optimal estimate for the state of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-03-11 Zezhong Zhang , Richard Archibald , Feng Bao

Exploration of the intractable posterior distributions associated with Bayesian versions of the general linear mixed model is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo. In particular, if a conditionally conjugate prior is used, then…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-03 Tavis Abrahamsen , James P. Hobert

Motivated by applications of distributed linear estimation, distributed control and distributed optimization, we consider the question of designing linear iterative algorithms for computing the average of numbers in a network. Specifically,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2009-08-28 Kyomin Jung , Devavrat Shah , Jinwoo Shin

We study quasi-stationary distributions and quasi-limiting behavior of Markov chains in general reducible state spaces with absorption. We propose a set of assumptions dealing with particular situations where the state space can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

Consider a compact metric space $(M, d_M)$ and $X = M^{\mathbb{N}}$. We prove a Ruelle's Perron Frobenius Theorem for a class of compact subshifts with Markovian structure introduced in [Bull. Braz. Math. Soc. 45 (2014), pp. 53-72] which…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-11-12 Rafael Rigão Souza , Victor Vargas

For general spin systems, we prove that a contractive coupling for any local Markov chain implies optimal bounds on the mixing time and the modified log-Sobolev constant for a large class of Markov chains including the Glauber dynamics,…

We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-03 Lorenzo Finesso , Angela Grassi , Peter Spreij

Selecting an appropriate divergence measure is a critical aspect of machine learning, as it directly impacts model performance. Among the most widely used, we find the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, originally introduced in kinetic…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-07-16 Gennaro Auricchio , Giovanni Brigati , Paolo Giudici , Giuseppe Toscani

The Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence is frequently used in data science. For discrete distributions on large state spaces, approximations of probability vectors may result in a few small negative entries, rendering the KL divergence…

Kernel interpolation is a versatile tool for the approximation of functions from data, and it can be proven to have some optimality properties when used with kernels related to certain Sobolev spaces. In the context of interpolation, the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-09 Gabriele Santin , Tizian Wenzel , Bernard Haasdonk

Marginalising over families of Gaussian Process kernels produces flexible model classes with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Existing approaches require likelihood evaluations of many kernels, rendering them prohibitively expensive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-16 Saad Hamid , Sebastian Schulze , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

Generative models have achieved remarkable success across a range of applications, yet their evaluation still lacks principled uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we develop a method for comparing how close different generative…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-24 Zijun Gao , Yan Sun , Han Su

We show in this note that the Sobolev Discrepancy introduced in Mroueh et al in the context of generative adversarial networks, is actually the weighted negative Sobolev norm $||.||_{\dot{H}^{-1}(\nu_q)}$, that is known to linearize the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-17 Youssef Mroueh
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