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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Zhe Li , Xiangfei Qiu , Peng Chen , Yihang Wang , Hanyin Cheng , Yang Shu , Jilin Hu , Chenjuan Guo , Aoying Zhou , Christian S. Jensen , Bin Yang

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are revolutionizing the forecasting landscape from specific dataset modeling to generalizable task evaluation. However, we contend that existing benchmarks exhibit common limitations in four dimensions:…

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Md Atik Ahamed , Mihir Parmar , Palash Goyal , Yiwen Song , Long T. Le , Qiang Cheng , Chun-Liang Li , Hamid Palangi , Jinsung Yoon , Tomas Pfister

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Qitai Tan , Yiyun Chen , Mo Li , Ruiwen Gu , Yilin Su , Xiao-Ping Zhang

Time series forecasting is critical across finance, healthcare, and cloud computing, yet progress is constrained by a fundamental bottleneck: the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality benchmarks. To address this gap, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Siqiao Xue , Zhaoyang Zhu , Wei Zhang , Rongyao Cai , Rui Wang , Yixiang Mu , Fan Zhou , Jianguo Li , Peng Di , Hang Yu

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Muyan Weng , Defu Cao , Wei Yang , Yashaswi Sharma , Yan Liu

While machine learning has witnessed significant advancements, the emphasis has largely been on data acquisition and model creation. However, achieving a comprehensive assessment of machine learning solutions in real-world settings…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) represent a new paradigm for time-series forecasting, promising zero-shot predictions without the need for task-specific training or fine-tuning. However, similar to Large Language Models (LLMs), the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Marcel Meyer , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Kevin Zalipski , Oliver Müller

Recent advances in time-series forecasting increasingly rely on pre-trained foundation-style models. While these models often claim broad generalization, existing evaluation protocols provide limited evidence. Indeed, most current…

Benchmarking is crucial for testing and validating any system, even more so in real-time systems. Typical real-time applications adhere to well-understood abstractions: they exhibit a periodic behavior, operate on a well-defined working…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2022-08-02 Mattia Nicolella , Shahin Roozkhosh , Denis Hoornaert , Andrea Bastoni , Renato Mancuso

The Genomic Foundation Model (GFM) paradigm is expected to facilitate the extraction of generalizable representations from massive genomic data, thereby enabling their application across a spectrum of downstream applications. Despite…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-06 Zicheng Liu , Jiahui Li , Siyuan Li , Zelin Zang , Cheng Tan , Yufei Huang , Yajing Bai , Stan Z. Li

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Marco Obermeier , Marco Pruckner , Florian Haselbeck , Andreas Zeiselmair

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Building energy management (BEM) tasks require processing and learning from a variety of time-series data. Existing solutions rely on bespoke task- and data-specific models to perform these tasks, limiting their broader applicability.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Ozan Baris Mulayim , Pengrui Quan , Liying Han , Xiaomin Ouyang , Dezhi Hong , Mario Bergés , Mani Srivastava

Understanding the relationship between textual news and time-series evolution is a critical yet under-explored challenge in applied data science. While multimodal learning has gained traction, existing multimodal time-series datasets fall…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Jialin Chen , Aosong Feng , Ziyu Zhao , Juan Garza , Gaukhar Nurbek , Cheng Qin , Ali Maatouk , Leandros Tassiulas , Yifeng Gao , Rex Ying

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Qingren Yao , Ming Jin , Chengqi Zhang , Chao-Han Huck Yang , Jun Qi , Shirui Pan

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly with the rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have limited domain coverage or overlook real-world…

Time series are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Fangxu Yu , Xingang Guo , Lingzhi Yuan , Haoqiang Kang , Hongyu Zhao , Lianhui Qin , Furong Huang , Bin Hu , Tianyi Zhou

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Jeremy Qin , Maksym Andriushchenko
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