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Evaluating large language models (LLMs) effectively remains a critical bottleneck, as traditional static benchmarks suffer from saturation and contamination, while human evaluations are costly and slow. This hinders timely or…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Sumuk Shashidhar , Clémentine Fourrier , Alina Lozovskia , Thomas Wolf , Gokhan Tur , Dilek Hakkani-Tür

Accurate evaluation of weather forecasting models is critical for their reliable deployment in real-world applications. However, existing benchmarks predominantly rely on reanalysis products such as ERA5, which are generated through delayed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Ruize Li , Zhibin Wen , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wei Zhang , Song Guo , Lei Bai

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) has long been a challenge in time series analysis. Inspired by the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), researchers are now developing Large Time Series Models (LTSMs)-universal transformer-based models…

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-03 Ezra Karger , Houtan Bastani , Chen Yueh-Han , Zachary Jacobs , Danny Halawi , Fred Zhang , Philip E. Tetlock

Time series data are ubiquitous across diverse real-world applications, making time series analysis critically important. Traditional approaches are largely task-specific, offering limited functionality and poor transferability. In recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Jiexia Ye , Yongzi Yu , Weiqi Zhang , Le Wang , Jia Li , Fugee Tsung

Recent studies have indicated that vision models pre-trained on images can serve as time series foundation models (TSFMs) by reformulating time series forecasting (TSF) as image reconstruction. However, effective cross-modal transfer from…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Xu Liu , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) achieve strong forecast accuracy, yet accuracy alone does not determine practical value. The form of a forecast -- point, quantile, parametric, or trajectory ensemble -- fundamentally constrains which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Alvaro Perez-Diaz , James C. Loach , Danielle E. Toutoungi , Lee Middleton

Recent research on time-series foundation models (TSFMs) has underscored the scarcity of real-world data, often supplemented with synthetic sources in existing datasets, whose generalizability remains however debated. As such, in this work,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Lujun Li , Lama Sleem , Yiqun Wang , Yangjie Xu , Niccolò Gentile , Radu State

The recent development and success of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitate an evaluation of their performance across diverse NLP tasks in different languages. Although several frameworks have been developed and made publicly available,…

Planning is a fundamental capability for large language models (LLMs) because such complex tasks require models to coordinate goals, constraints, resources, and long-term consequences into executable and verifiable solutions. Existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Ziliang Zhao , Zenan Xu , Shuting Wang , Hongjin Qian , Yan Lei , Minda Hu , Zhao Wang , Shihan Dou , Zhicheng Dou , Pluto Zhou

Time series foundation models excel in zero-shot forecasting, handling diverse tasks without explicit training. However, the advancement of these models has been hindered by the lack of comprehensive benchmarks. To address this gap, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Taha Aksu , Gerald Woo , Juncheng Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Silvio Savarese , Caiming Xiong , Doyen Sahoo

Process Model Forecasting (PMF) aims to predict how the control-flow structure of a process evolves over time by modeling the temporal dynamics of directly-follows (DF) relations, complementing predictive process monitoring that focuses on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-09 Yongbo Yu , Jari Peeperkorn , Johannes De Smedt , Jochen De Weerdt

The increasing adoption of data-driven decision-making in public health has established epidemic forecasting as a critical area of research. Recent advances in multivariate forecasting models better capture complex temporal dependencies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Madhurima Panja , Danny D'Agostino , Huitao Li , Tanujit Chakraborty , Nan Liu

Time series forecasting is critical to real-world decision making, yet most existing approaches remain unimodal and rely on extrapolating historical patterns. While recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the potential…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Jinkwan Jang , Hyunbin Jin , Hyungjin Park , Kyubyung Chae , Taesup Kim

Facts change over time, making it essential for Large Language Models (LLMs) to handle time-sensitive factual knowledge accurately and reliably. Although factual Time-Sensitive Question-Answering (TSQA) tasks have been widely developed,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Soyeon Kim , Jindong Wang , Xing Xie , Steven Euijong Whang

Autoscaling has become a baseline expectation for cloud-native big data processing, and the design space has expanded beyond rule-based heuristics to include learned controllers and, most recently, large language model (LLM) agents. Yet…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Venkata Krishna Prasanth Budigi , Siri Chandana Sirigiri

The recent boom of large pre-trained models witnesses remarkable success in developing foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting. Despite impressive performance across diverse downstream forecasting tasks, existing time series FMs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Hui He , Kun Yi , Yuanchi Ma , Qi Zhang , Zhendong Niu , Guansong Pang

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) are transforming the field of forecasting. However, evaluating them on historical data is increasingly difficult due to the risks of train-test sample overlaps and temporal overlaps between correlated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Marcel Meyer , Sascha Kaltenpoth , Henrik Albers , Kevin Zalipski , Oliver Müller

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-04 Siyang Li , Yize Chen , Zijie Zhu , Yuxin Pan , Yan Guo , Ming Huang , Hui Xiong

Foundation models have enabled rapid progress across many specialized domains by leveraging large-scale pre-training on unlabeled data, demonstrating strong generalization to a variety of downstream tasks. While such models have gained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Mirali Purohit , Bimal Gajera , Vatsal Malaviya , Irish Mehta , Kunal Kasodekar , Jacob Adler , Steven Lu , Umaa Rebbapragada , Hannah Kerner