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We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

We propose a novel framework for synthesizing counterfactual treatment group data in a target site by integrating full treatment and control group data from a source site with control group data from the target. Departing from conventional…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Borna Bateni , Yubai Yuan , Qi Xu , Annie Qu

Randomized clinical trials are considered the gold standard for informing treatment guidelines, but results may not generalize to real-world populations. Generalizability is hindered by distributional differences in baseline covariates and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-03 Rachael K. Ross , Ivan Diaz , Amy J. Pitts , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Kara E. Rudolph

Machine learning models used in medical applications often face challenges due to the covariate shift, which occurs when there are discrepancies between the distributions of training and target data. This can lead to decreased predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Mingyang Cai , Thomas Klausch , Mark A. van de Wiel

In 2023, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued guidance for adjustment of covariates in randomized clinical trials, emphasizing its role in enhancing precision and power through prognostic baseline variables. Despite its potential,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Kelly Van Lancker , Iván Díaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

Existing weighting methods for treatment effect estimation are often built upon the idea of propensity scores or covariate balance. They usually impose strong assumptions on treatment assignment or outcome model to obtain unbiased…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Dongcheng Zhang , Kunpeng Zhang

We propose a new framework for binary classification in transfer learning settings where both covariate and label distributions may shift between source and target domains. Unlike traditional covariate shift or label shift assumptions, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-29 Manli Cheng , Subha Maity , Qinglong Tian , Pengfei Li

Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning task in which, unlike in traditional inductive learning, the unlabelled data that require labelling are a finite set and are available at training time. Similarly to inductive learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-31 Lorenzo Volpi , Alejandro Moreo , Fabrizio Sebastiani

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

Estimating the mean counterfactual outcome under a treatment rule is a central problem in causal inference and policy evaluation. Standard estimators, including inverse probability weighting (IPW), augmented IPW (AIPW), and targeted maximum…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Yichen Xu , Mark J. van der Laan

We consider the problem of indirect comparison, where a treatment arm of interest is absent by design in one randomized controlled trial but available in the other. The former is the target trial, and the latter is the source trial. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 Zehao Su , Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

In dynamic decision-making scenarios across business and healthcare, leveraging sample trajectories from diverse populations can significantly enhance reinforcement learning (RL) performance for specific target populations, especially when…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Jinhang Chai , Elynn Chen , Jianqing Fan

Meta-learning has emerged as a prominent technology for few-shot text classification and has achieved promising performance. However, existing methods often encounter difficulties in drawing accurate class prototypes from support set…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-15 Xinyue Liu , Yunlong Gao , Linlin Zong , Bo Xu

Regression prediction plays a crucial role in practical applications and strongly relies on data annotation. However, due to prohibitive annotation costs or domain-specific constraints, labeled data in the target domain is often scarce,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Bingbing Wang , Jiaqi Wang , Yu Tang

Population-adjusted indirect comparisons (PAICs) are widely used to synthesize evidence when randomized controlled trials enroll different patient populations and head-to-head comparisons are unavailable. Although PAICs adjust for observed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Conor Chandler , Jack Ishak

Achieving a socially desirable operating point for a multimodal transportation system is challenging when Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD) and Public Transit (PT) operators pursue selfish objectives alongside endogenous passenger…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-19 Xinling Li , Runyu Zhang , Gioele Zardini

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Eric Dunipace

When estimating an effect of an action with a randomized or observational study, that study is often not a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population.…

Meta-learning performs adaptation through a limited amount of support set, which may cause a sample bias problem. To solve this problem, transductive meta-learning is getting more and more attention, going beyond the conventional inductive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Sanghyuk Lee , Seunghyun Lee , Byung Cheol Song