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Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-25 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

Simulation is a powerful tool for exploring uncertainty. Its potential in clinical medicine is transformative and includes personalized treatment planning and virtual clinical trials. However, simulating patient trajectories is challenging…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Yu Akagi , Tomohisa Seki , Hiromasa Ito , Toru Takiguchi , Kazuhiko Ohe , Yoshimasa Kawazoe

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Counterfactual medical image generation enables clinicians to explore clinical hypotheses, such as predicting disease progression, facilitating their decision-making. While existing methods can generate visually plausible images from…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-03 Chenglong Ma , Yuanfeng Ji , Jin Ye , Lu Zhang , Ying Chen , Tianbin Li , Mingjie Li , Junjun He , Hongming Shan

Counterfactual inference provides a mathematical framework for reasoning about hypothetical outcomes under alternative interventions, bridging causal reasoning and predictive modeling. We present a counterfactual inference framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Jingya Cheng , Alaleh Azhir , Jiazi Tian , Hossein Estiri

Counterfactual generation offers a principled framework for simulating hypothetical changes in medical imaging, with potential applications in understanding disease mechanisms and generating physiologically plausible data. However,…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-25 Pengwei Sun , Wei Peng , Lun Yu Li , Yixin Wang , Kilian M. Pohl

Identifying when to give treatments to patients and how to select among multiple treatments over time are important medical problems with a few existing solutions. In this paper, we introduce the Counterfactual Recurrent Network (CRN), a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Ioana Bica , Ahmed M. Alaa , James Jordon , Mihaela van der Schaar

The discovery of patient-specific imaging markers that are predictive of future disease outcomes can help us better understand individual-level heterogeneity of disease evolution. In fact, deep learning models that can provide data-driven…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-05 Amar Kumar , Anjun Hu , Brennan Nichyporuk , Jean-Pierre R. Falet , Douglas L. Arnold , Sotirios Tsaftaris , Tal Arbel

Decision-makers are faced with the challenge of estimating what is likely to happen when they take an action. For instance, if I choose not to treat this patient, are they likely to die? Practitioners commonly use supervised learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-02 Peter Schulam , Suchi Saria

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

Predictive process analytics focuses on predicting future states, such as the outcome of running process instances. These techniques often use machine learning models or deep learning models (such as LSTM) to make such predictions. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-29 Olusanmi Hundogan , Xixi Lu , Yupei Du , Hajo A. Reijers

The use of machine learning systems to support decision making in healthcare raises questions as to what extent these systems may introduce or exacerbate disparities in care for historically underrepresented and mistreated groups, due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Stephen Pfohl , Tony Duan , Daisy Yi Ding , Nigam H. Shah

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Generation of realistic synthetic data has garnered considerable attention in recent years, particularly in the health research domain due to its utility in, for instance, sharing data while protecting patient privacy or determining optimal…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-01-30 Niki Z. Petrakos , Erica E. M. Moodie , Nicolas Savy

Rapid progress has been made in instruction-learning for image editing with natural-language instruction, as exemplified by InstructPix2Pix. In biomedicine, such methods can be applied to counterfactual image generation, which helps…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Yu Gu , Jianwei Yang , Naoto Usuyama , Chunyuan Li , Sheng Zhang , Matthew P. Lungren , Jianfeng Gao , Hoifung Poon

Synthetic medical data which preserves privacy while maintaining utility can be used as an alternative to real medical data, which has privacy costs and resource constraints associated with it. At present, most models focus on generating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-28 Saloni Dash , Ritik Dutta , Isabelle Guyon , Adrien Pavao , Andrew Yale , Kristin P. Bennett

Enhancing reproducibility and data accessibility is essential to scientific research. However, ensuring data privacy while achieving these goals is challenging, especially in the medical field, where sensitive data are often commonplace.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-24 Marta Cipriani , Lorenzo Di Rocco , Maria Puopolo , Marco Alfò

With the ever-growing complexity of primary health care system, proactive patient failure management is an effective way to enhancing the availability of health care resource. One key enabler is the dynamic prediction of time-to-event…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-12 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

We propose an interactive methodology for generating counterfactual explanations for univariate time series data in classification tasks by leveraging 2D projections and decision boundary maps to tackle interpretability challenges. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Udo Schlegel , Julius Rauscher , Daniel A. Keim

Wearable sensor data offer opportunities for personalized health monitoring, yet deriving actionable insights from their complex, longitudinal data streams is challenging. This paper introduces a framework to learn personalized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-21 Ajan Subramanian , Amir M. Rahmani
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