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We propose a nonlinear difference-in-differences method to estimate multivariate counterfactual distributions in classical treatment and control study designs with observational data. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-11 William Torous , Florian Gunsilius , Philippe Rigollet

The relationship between socioeconomic background, academic performance, and post-secondary educational outcomes remains a significant concern for policymakers and researchers globally. While the literature often relies on self-reported or…

We propose a novel multi-layered nonlinear model that is able to capture and predict the housing-demographic dynamics of the real-state market by simulating the transitions of owners among price-based house layers. This model allows us to…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2008-12-02 Ramon Huerta , Fernando Corbacho , Luis F. Lago-Fernandez

Many recent studies use individual longitudinal data to analyze job search behaviors. Such data allow the use of fixed-effects models, which supposedly address the issue of dynamic selection and make it possible to identify the structural…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-09 Jeremy Zuchuat

Treatment effects of stochastic policy shifts quantify differences in outcomes across counterfactual scenarios with varying treatment distributions. Stochastic policy shifts may be of interest in settings where it is unrealistic or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Chenwei Fang , Didong Li , Michael G. Hudgens

We propose a novel framework for conducting causal inference based on counterfactual densities. While the current paradigm of causal inference is mostly focused on estimating average treatment effects (ATEs), which restricts the analysis to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-27 Georg Keilbar , Sonja Greven

We analyse economic growth vulnerability of the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries under stressed macroeconomic and financial conditions. Vulnerability, measured as a lower quantile of the growth distribution conditional on EA-wide and…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-18 Claudio Lissona , Esther Ruiz

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…

General Economics · Economics 2021-04-13 Ivan Kitov

We analyse the distribution and the flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity, with particular focus on the duration of the school-to-work…

General Economics · Economics 2023-05-31 Davide Fiaschi , Cristina Tealdi

A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-30 A. Torres-Signes , M. P. Frías , M. D. Ruiz-Medina

Work-related transportation incidents significantly impact urban mobility and productivity. These incidents include traffic crashes, collisions between vehicles, and falls that occurred during commuting or work-related transportation (e.g.,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Eduardo Graells-Garrido , Matías Toro , Gabriel Mansilla , Matías Nicolai , Santiago Mansilla , Jocelyn Dunstan

We study the evolution of intergenerational educational mobility and related distributional statistics in Spain. Over recent decades, mobility has risen by one-third, coinciding with pronounced declines in inequality and assortative mating…

General Economics · Economics 2025-12-30 Ricard Grebol , Margarita Machelett , Jan Stuhler , Ernesto Villanueva

This study explores the impact of unemployment benefits on employment quality, job stability, and tenure within complex labour market dynamics. Given the macroeconomic consequences of changes in unemployment benefits, including their impact…

General Economics · Economics 2024-07-31 Jessica Reale , Frederik Banning , Michael Roos

Youth unemployment rates are still in alerting levels for many countries, among which Italy. Direct consequences include poverty, social exclusion, and criminal behaviours, while negative impact on the future employability and wage cannot…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-10-15 Alessandra Urbinati , Kyriaki Kalimeri , Andrea Bonanomi , Alessandro Rosina , Ciro Cattuto , Daniela Paolotti

This research seeks to measure the impact of people with technological knowledge on regional digital economic activity and the implications of prosperous cities' contagion effect on neighbouring ones. The focus of this study is…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-09-04 Cesar R Salas-Guerra

This paper addresses the challenge of estimating the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated Survivors (ATETS; Vikstrom et al., 2018) in the absence of long-term experimental data, utilizing available long-term observational data instead.…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-03-26 Yechan Park , Yuya Sasaki

Ride-sourcing platforms such as Uber and Lyft are prime examples of the gig economy, recruiting drivers as independent contractors, thereby avoiding legal and fiscal obligations. Although platforms offer flexibility in choosing work shifts…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Farnoud Ghasemi , Arjan de Ruijter , Rafal Kucharski , Oded Cats

The purpose of this paper is to provide a micro-economic foundation for an argument that the direct employment by the government is more desirable than the government purchase of private goods to eliminate unemployment. A general…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-04-01 Kensuke Ohtake

This study expands upon the foundation of 'Skill-Relevance-Self Selection' model on labor immigration, introduced by our previous study (Lee, Lim, & Cho, 2022). In detail, we seek an empirical confirmation of the model by providing evidence…

General Economics · Economics 2023-06-16 Kwonhyung Lee , Yejin Lim , Sunghyun Cho

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…

General Economics · Economics 2021-05-06 Anton Pichler , J. Doyne Farmer