Related papers: Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Highly-diverse ecosystems exhibit a broad distribution of population sizes and species turnover, where species at high and low abundances are exchanged over time. We show that these two features generically emerge in the fluctuating phase…
We use nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations to verify recent tube-model predictions that associative polymer networks exhibit broad stretch fluctuations during elongational flow. Simulations further show that these fluctuating…
In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of spreading processes taking place over time-varying networks. A common approach to model time-varying networks is via Markovian random graph processes. This modeling approach presents the following…
To understand how certain dynamical behaviors can or cannot persist as the underlying network grows is a problem of increasing importance in complex dynamical systems as well as sustainability science and engineering. We address the…
We study the fluctuation properties and return-time statistics on inhomogeneous scale-free networks using packets moving with two different dynamical rules; random diffusion and locally navigated diffusive motion with preferred edges.…
We develop a tractable macroeconomic model that captures dynamic behaviors across multiple timescales, including business cycles. The model is anchored in a dynamic capital demand framework reflecting an interactions-based process whereby…
Robustness to perturbation is a key topic in the study of complex systems occurring across a wide variety of applications from epidemiology to biochemistry. Here we analyze the eigenspectrum of the Jacobian matrices associated to a general…
We study the mean field approximation of a recent model of cascades on networks relevant to the investigation of systemic risk control in financial networks. In the model, the hypothesis of a trend reinforcement in the stochastic process…
The position of propagating population fronts fluctuates because of the discreteness of the individuals and stochastic character of processes of birth, death and migration. Here we consider a Markov model of a population front propagating…
Shifting our electricity generation from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources introduces large fluctuations to the power system. Here, we demonstrate how increased fluctuations, reduced damping and reduced intertia may undermine the…
Do firm dynamics matter for the transmission of monetary policy? Empirically, the startup rate declines following a monetary contraction, while the exit rate increases, both of which reduce aggregate employment. I present a model that…
Thermodynamic equations for a solid and a solid continuum under stress are derived on the basis of a multicomponent mean field Markov process for thermofluctuation kinetics of microcracks. The resulting continuum is viscous elastoplastic…
We investigate the dynamic evolution of jamming in granular media through fluctuations in the granular drag force. The successive collapse and formation of jammed states give a stick-slip nature to the fluctuations which is independent of…
Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays,…
The volatility of financial instruments is rarely constant, and usually varies over time. This creates a phenomenon called volatility clustering, where large price movements on one day are followed by similarly large movements on successive…
Cortical neurons are bistable; as a consequence their local field potentials can fluctuate between quiescent and active states, generating slow 0.5-2 Hz oscillations which are widely known as transitions between Up and Down States. Despite…
We study the distributional implications of uncertainty shocks by developing a model that links macroeconomic aggregates to the US distribution of earnings and consumption. We find that: initially, the fraction of low-earning workers…
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous…
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent…