Related papers: Shock Propagation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Self-sustained order can emerge in complex systems due to internal feedback between coupled subsystems. Here, we present our discovery of a non-monotonic emergence of order amidst chaos in a turbulent thermo-acoustic fluid system.…

This study presents a method to predict the growth fluctuation of firms interdependent in a network economy. The risk of downward growth fluctuation of firms is calculated from the statistics on Japanese industry.

We study a coupled dynamics of a network and a particle system. Particles of density $\rho$ diffuse freely along edges, each of which is rewired at a rate given by a decreasing function of particle flux. We find that the coupled dynamics…

Macroevolutionary dynamics often display sudden, explosive surges, where systems remain relatively stable for extended periods before experiencing dramatic acceleration that frequently exceeds traditional exponential growth. This pattern is…

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other…

Recurrent networks of non-linear units display a variety of dynamical regimes depending on the structure of their synaptic connectivity. A particularly remarkable phenomenon is the appearance of strongly fluctuating, chaotic activity in…

The aim of this study is to contribute to the theory of exogenous economic shocks and their equivalents in an attempt to explain business cycle fluctuations, which still do not have a clear explanation. To this end the author has developed…

We model flow and transport in three-dimensional fracture networks with varying degrees of fracture-to-fracture aperture/permeability heterogeneity and network density to show how changes in these properties can cause the emergence of…

We propose an analytical technique to study large fluctuations and switching from internal noise in complex networks. Using order-disorder kinetics as a generic example, we construct and analyze the most probable, or optimal path of…

The effects of demographic stochasticity in the long term behaviour of endemic infectious diseases have been considered for long as a necessary addition to an underlying deterministic theory. The latter would explain the regular behaviour…

We present a dynamical theory of asset price bubbles that exhibits the appearance of bubbles and their subsequent crashes. We show that when speculative trends dominate over fundamental beliefs, bubbles form, leading to the growth of asset…

Can uncertainty about credit availability trigger a slowdown in real activity? This question is answered by using a novel method to identify shocks to uncertainty in access to credit. Time-variation in uncertainty about credit availability…

We study the probability density function for the fluctuations of the magnetic order parameter in the low temperature phase of the XY model of finite size. In two-dimensions this system is critical over the whole of the low temperature…

National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…

Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…

Recent work on stochastic interacting particle systems with two particle species (or single-species systems with kinematic constraints) has demonstrated the existence of spontaneous symmetry breaking, long-range order and phase coexistence…

Unlike macroscopic multistable mechanical systems such as snap bracelets or elastic shells that must be physically manipulated into various conformations, microscopic systems can undergo spontaneous conformation switching between…

We propose a novel framework for modeling time-varying persistence in economic time series, allowing for smoothly evolving heterogeneity in shock dynamics. We leverage localized regression techniques to flexibly identify changes in…

Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…

The effect of fluctuations on the conductivity of ion channels is investigated. It is shown that modulation of the potential barrier at the selectivity site due to electrostatic amplification of charge fluctuations at the channel mouth…